New Energy Takes Center Stage in Energy Supply—What's Next for the Coming Five Years?

Interface News Reporter | Ma Yueyan

New energy has become the core driver for implementing the “dual carbon” goals, with development trends over the next five years directly impacting the entire industry chain.

On the evening of March 13, the “Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” (hereinafter referred to as the “15th Five-Year Plan”) was officially released.

The outline is divided into 18 sections. Interface News has observed that the energy section includes many new expressions.

The 15th Five-Year Plan states that significant progress has been made in building a Beautiful China. A basic green production and lifestyle has been formed, the peak carbon emission target has been achieved on schedule, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP have decreased by 17%, and a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system has been initially established.

In the section on strengthening new energy infrastructure, the plan requires deepening the implementation of a new energy security strategy, accelerating the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, and building a strong energy nation.

At the same time, it promotes the reliable and orderly replacement of fossil fuels with non-fossil energy sources,坚持多能并举，包括风能、太阳能、水能、核能等，实施非化石能源十年倍增行动。统筹就地消纳和外送，建设“三北”风电光伏、西南水风光一体化、沿海核电、海上风电等清洁能源基地，加强分布式能源的就近开发利用，布局发展绿色氢、氨、醇，积极推进光热发电和地热能利用。

Interface News notes that “坚持风光水核等多能并举” was proposed for the first time in a five-year plan, and from related statements, China’s energy structure is increasingly tilted toward photovoltaic and wind power as the main new energy sources.

Additionally, the issue of energy consumption of new energy remains a key bottleneck restricting its large-scale development, requiring upgrades to the power grid, energy storage support, and market mechanism reforms to address.

The “15th Five-Year Plan” emphasizes the need to build a new power system, comprehensively improve the system’s complementarity and resilience, optimize the national power flow and cross-regional channel layout, accelerate smart grid construction, improve urban and rural distribution networks, scientifically plan pumped storage, and vigorously develop new energy storage.

Regarding new energy storage, the plan prefixes it with “vigorously develop,” clearly reaffirming its market position and further promoting the industry from policy-driven to high-quality development.

Image source: Xinhua News Agency

Image source: Xinhua News Agency

Haechen Energy Storage officials told Interface News that since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the positioning of new energy storage has undergone a fundamental change. During the 15th Five-Year Plan, the role of new energy storage will shift from “supplementary” to “critical.” It is no longer just a supplement to renewable energy development but one of the most important flexible resources for building a new power system.

The person said that China’s new power system is accelerating toward large-scale, low-carbon, flexible, and intelligent upgrades. Whether it is renewable energy absorption, system regulation, or grid security, the core is to enhance the flexibility of the power system, using safer and more economical methods to make the system “more stable, faster, smarter” in the face of fluctuations.

“New energy storage and pumped storage are not competing but are collaborating to build a multi-layered energy storage system,” the person believes. “During the 15th Five-Year Plan, the relationship between these two types of storage will become clearer.”

Among them, pumped storage is the “ballast” of the power system, suitable for large-scale, long-cycle regulation, supporting the system’s fundamental stability.

Among new energy storage, especially lithium long-duration storage of 2–8 hours, has advantages such as flexible capacity, flexible deployment, and quick power response. It can precisely respond to fluctuations in renewable energy, meet intra-day and daily regulation needs, and play a unique role at the connection point, distribution end, and user side.

Last September, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “Special Action Plan for the Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025–2027),” proposing that within three years from 2025 to 2027, the country’s new energy storage installed capacity will increase by over 100 million kilowatts; by 2027, the total new energy storage capacity will reach over 180 GW, driving direct investment of about 250 billion yuan.

Currently, new energy storage is gradually shifting from “mandatory pairing” to “demand-based configuration,” from “policy-driven” to “market-led.”

“The core bottleneck for industry development is how to realize the economic returns of the huge value of energy storage through market mechanisms. The past model of ‘difficult to use when paired’ is unsustainable; storage must participate in market transactions to obtain reasonable returns,” said the Haechen Energy Storage official.

He suggested that during the 15th Five-Year Plan, efforts should be made to accelerate the construction of a unified national electricity market, open electricity and auxiliary trading markets, improve trading systems, establish a flexible power asset rating and access system, and build a comprehensive online monitoring mechanism for battery safety and operation.

Compared to the rapid growth period of energy storage, the installed capacity growth of photovoltaics is expected to slow in the future. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the global annual compound growth rate of new PV installations from 2025 to 2035 will slow to 3%, with China’s rate dropping to -5%.

Currently, the main contradiction in the domestic PV industry is the clearance of outdated capacity, with unclear implementation timelines, disrupting market recovery.

In the wind power sector, after the “136” document, industry certainty is higher than for photovoltaics in the short term.

Last October, at the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition, the “Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0” was released. It proposed that during the 15th Five-Year Plan, China’s wind power capacity should increase by no less than 120 GW annually, ensuring that by 2030, the cumulative wind power capacity reaches 1.3 billion kW, and by 2035, no less than 2 billion kW, reaching 5 billion kW by 2060.

Last September, China announced a new round of nationally determined contributions (NDC), aiming for wind and solar power to reach more than six times the 2020 capacity by 2035, striving for 3.6 billion kW.

In interviews with media such as Interface News, Tongwei Group Chairman Liu Hanyuan stated that the “15th Five-Year Plan” emphasizes energy transition and energy strength, highlighting the importance of energy for China’s economic and social development, energy transformation, and carbon neutrality and peaking. It also presents strategic opportunities for high-quality development during the carbon peaking and neutrality process, elevating industry understanding.

Liu Hanyuan believes that China, as a leading force in global energy revolution, has entered the “deep water” and “no man’s land” of energy transformation, requiring greater resolve and responsibility to expand application, solve development issues through growth, consolidate and expand China’s leading position, and continue to lead global green transformation. During the 15th Five-Year Plan, China is capable of further accelerating its domestic energy transition and “running faster and better.”

“By increasing the installation and application of new energy, we can quickly eliminate some industry overcompetition and effectively boost sustained economic growth, helping China stay at the forefront of global climate governance,” Liu Hanyuan said.

In addition to mature renewable sources like wind, solar, and storage, the “15th Five-Year Plan” also looks ahead to future industries, proposing to promote sectors including hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion as new economic growth points.