Oriental Wealth Financial Breakfast March 20 Friday

Daily Highlights

Firmly maintaining the stability of financial markets:

The People’s Bank of China Party Committee held an expanded meeting on March 18, emphasizing active and prudent resolution of financial risks in key areas. Striking a dynamic balance at the macro level between economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial risk prevention. Continuing efforts to resolve debt risks in financial support platforms. Adhering to market-oriented and rule-of-law principles, actively and prudently managing risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions. Fully leveraging the macroprudential management and financial stability functions of the central bank to steadfastly ensure the smooth operation of stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets.

CSRC Holds Investment Institution Symposium:

On March 19, CSRC Party Secretary and Chairman Wu Qing held a symposium in Beijing, engaging with representatives from the National Social Security Fund, insurance asset management, public funds, private funds, and bank wealth management, among others, to gather opinions and suggestions. Participants discussed how to further deepen reforms on the investment side, improve institutional inclusiveness and adaptability, and enhance the inherent stability of the capital market.

Iranian Lawmaker Proposes Tolls for Strait of Hormuz Transit:

According to Iran’s Tehran Times social media account on March 19, an Iranian parliament member revealed that the Iranian parliament is pushing a bill that, if passed, would require countries using the Strait of Hormuz as a safe passage for ships, energy, and grain transportation to pay transit fees and taxes to Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Says US May Lift Maritime Sanctions on Iranian Oil:

On March 19, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the U.S. has not attacked Iran’s energy infrastructure and has allowed Iranian oil to continue flowing through the Gulf region. The U.S. may lift sanctions on Iranian maritime oil in the coming days. Additionally, the U.S. might release strategic oil reserves again to curb oil prices.

Alibaba Financial Results:

Alibaba announced that revenue for Q3 reached 284.84 billion RMB, up 2% year-over-year; analysts expected 289.79 billion RMB. Non-GAAP net profit was 16.71 billion RMB, down 67% from 51.07 billion RMB in the same period last year. Alibaba also stated that it has scaled up production of its self-developed Pingtouge GPU to support end-to-end AI workloads from training and fine-tuning to inference.

Precious Metals Prices Drop Sharply:

On the evening of March 19, international precious metals prices fell sharply. Spot gold once dropped 5.67%, to $4,545.45 per ounce; spot silver fell 12.09%, to $66.25 per ounce. Following U.S. initial jobless claims data last week, traders no longer bet on a Fed rate cut in 2026. They increased bets on a rate hike by the European Central Bank, with a 75% probability of a third rate hike this year.

MIIT Holds Meeting:

Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired the 14th SME Roundtable on March 19. He emphasized that entrepreneurs should focus on urgently needed key materials and weak links in the supply chain, take on responsibilities, and improve self-sufficiency in key areas. Strengthen innovation leadership, increase R&D investment, participate actively in major national science and technology projects, and accelerate the output of original, landmark technological achievements. Also, stay ahead of international technological frontiers, grasp new material transformation trends, explore applications of AI in material R&D, pilot testing, and production, to create new competitive advantages.

Securities Transaction Stamp Duty:

According to the Ministry of Finance’s report on January–February 2026, total fiscal revenue was 44.154 trillion RMB, up 0.7% year-over-year. Tax revenue was 36.393 trillion RMB, up 0.1%; non-tax revenue was 7.761 trillion RMB, up 3.4%. Stamp duty on securities transactions reached 114.3 billion RMB, up 34.7%, with stock transaction stamp duty at 49.9 billion RMB, up 110%.

Hot Topics

Oil:

Due to escalating Middle East tensions, international oil prices rose again on March 19. Brent crude futures surged up to 8% intraday, reaching $111.39 per barrel. According to CCTV News, early morning on March 19, Iran launched the “Real Commitment-4” operation, the 63rd round. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an emergency statement claiming a large-scale missile attack on regional oil and energy facilities related to the U.S.

AI:

At Alibaba’s Q3 earnings call, CEO Wu Yongming announced that Alibaba Cloud’s external commercialization revenue for FY2026, ending February, officially surpassed 100 billion RMB. The company’s AI strategy aims for a five-year target of over $100 billion in cloud and AI commercialization revenue, including MaaS.

Natural Gas:

European natural gas prices soared. Reports indicate Iran’s attack damaged 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas capacity, with repair estimates of 3 to 5 years. Benchmark natural gas futures surged up to 35% on Thursday, then retreated to 26%, reaching a new high since December 2022. Since the outbreak of war, prices have more than doubled.

Computing Power:

Recent reports show Baidu Cloud announced price adjustments for AI computing, storage, and related products: AI computing services increased by approximately 5–30%; parallel file storage up about 30%. Alibaba Cloud also announced that due to global AI demand and supply chain price increases, prices for AI computing and storage products could rise by up to 34%.

Coal:

Qatar announced the suspension of LNG production at Ras Laffan early in the Iran-U.S. conflict, severely impacting energy supplies in Asia. Asia accounts for 85% of Qatar’s LNG exports, making it the biggest victim of this event. To cope, China, India, South Korea, Japan, and the broader Southeast and South Asia regions are utilizing accumulated coal reserves.

Electric Power:

The International Energy Agency’s “Electricity 2026” report projects that by 2030, global electricity demand will increase by more than twice the current EU consumption. The report states that global electricity demand is growing at a much faster rate than in the past decade, with an annual growth rate exceeding 3.5% until 2030—more than 2.5 times the overall energy demand growth. Main drivers include rising industrial electricity use, continued adoption of electric vehicles, increased air conditioning demand, and surging data center and AI electricity consumption.

Storage Chips:

On Wednesday after hours, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated that the supply shortage in the memory chip industry will persist beyond 2026, providing strong support for short- and medium-term pricing. Driven by strong demand, Micron has signed its first five-year strategic customer agreement.

Company News

Dinglong Co.: The main plant and supporting facilities of Dinglong (Qianjiang) New Materials Co., Ltd., invested in the “Annual Production of 300 Tons of KrF/ArF Photolithography Materials Industrialization Project,” have been completed and recently put into operation.

*ST Changyao: The company’s stock will resume trading on March 20, 2026, and enter the delisting risk warning period, which lasts 15 trading days, with the last trading date expected to be April 10, 2026.

China Jushi: Achieved revenue of 18.881 billion RMB in 2025, up 19.08%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.285 billion RMB, up 34.38%; basic earnings per share were 0.8213 RMB. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 1.9 RMB per 10 shares (tax included). During the reporting period, production increased with capacity expansion; sales of glass fiber roving and electronic fabric also hit record highs.

Xitest: In 2025, the company’s revenue from commercial aerospace-related business was a small proportion of total revenue, still in expansion stage, with uncertainties remaining. It will not significantly impact the company’s current financial data or operating performance. Investors are advised to exercise caution and be aware of investment risks.

Jiangbolong: Director Li Zhixiong plans to reduce holdings of no more than 2.4 million shares (0.5726% of total shares) through centralized bidding or block trades from April 13 to July 12, 2026. Vice General Manager Gao Xichun also plans to reduce holdings of no more than 23,000 shares (0.0055%).

Yatai Group: Its wholly owned subsidiary, Yatai Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd., plans to publicly transfer 5 million shares of Jiangsu Weikai’er Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. at the Changchun Public Resources Exchange, with a minimum asking price of 191 million RMB.

EVE Energy: According to the latest official microblog, on March 17, the “Solid Core, Future” ceremony for EVE’s Longquan No. 3 & No. 4 all-solid-state batteries was held at the Chengdu base.

ChuanJinnuo: In 2025, achieved revenue of 4.075 billion RMB, up 27.04%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 454 million RMB, up 157.77%; basic earnings per share were 1.651 RMB. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 RMB per 10 shares (tax included).

Xuguang Electronics: In 2025, revenue was 1.635 billion RMB, up 3.06%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 162 million RMB, up 57.67%; basic earnings per share were 0.1949 RMB. It plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.7 RMB per 10 shares (tax included).

Global Markets

Iran Situation: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated on March 19 that Israel “independently” carried out an airstrike on Iran’s natural gas fields, and will “comply” with U.S. President Trump’s request to “pause” further attacks on energy facilities. Earlier, Trump said he had told Netanyahu not to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Strait of Hormuz: France, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a joint statement expressing readiness to take appropriate measures to ensure navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trading Tips

Bond Market Overview

Shibor: On March 19, the overnight Shibor was 1.3210%, up 0.10 basis points; 7-day was 1.4230%, down 0.20 basis points; 14-day was 1.4890%, down 6.70 basis points; January was 1.5180%, down 0.20 basis points; March was 1.5280%, down 0.40 basis points.

U.S. Bonds: At New York close, the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell 1.57 basis points to 4.2493%, trading between 4.3221% and 4.2356%. After the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, a sharp drop occurred at 03:00 Beijing time. The 2-year yield rose 1.74 basis points to 3.7924%; the 20-year yield fell 3.39 basis points; the 30-year fell 4.34 basis points. The 3-year yield rose 1.42 basis points, the 5-year rose 0.19, and the 7-year fell 0.25. The 10-year/2-year spread decreased by 2.885 basis points to +45.479 basis points.

Commodity Futures

Domestic Futures: On March 19, domestic commodity futures closed mixed. The energy sector led gains, precious metals plunged, liquefied gas hit the daily limit with an 11% increase, LU Fuel Oil up over 10%, methanol and crude oil up over 8%, ethylene glycol and fuel oil up over 6%, and apple, polypropylene, asphalt, and plastics up over 4%. Decliners included Shanghai silver down over 10%, palladium down over 8%, platinum down over 7%.

International Gold and Silver: COMEX gold futures for the current month fell $244.30, down 4.99%, to $4,651.9 per ounce. COMEX silver futures fell $4.78, down 6.16%, to $72.81 per ounce. Spot gold dropped $168.11, down 3.49%, to $4,650.77 per ounce. Spot silver fell $2.56, down 3.40%, to $72.81 per ounce.

International Crude Oil: On March 19, international oil prices declined. NYMEX WTI crude futures for the current month fell $0.87, closing at $94.59 per barrel, down 0.91%.

International Metals: LME copper fell $249, to $12,146 per ton; aluminum down $148, to $3,252 per ton; zinc down $62, to $3,072 per ton; lead down $26, to $1,888 per ton; nickel down $167, to $16,984 per ton; tin down $1,523, to $43,540 per ton; cobalt remained flat at $56,290 per ton.

International Agricultural Products: NY close, Bloomberg grain index up 0.82%, at 31.950 points. CBOT corn futures up 1.46%, wheat futures up 0.99%, soybeans up 0.62%, soybean meal up 3.48%, soybean oil down 0.46%.

Foreign Exchange Market

RMB: On March 19, onshore RMB closed at 6.90130 at 16:30 Beijing time, down 251 points; offshore RMB at 6.89705 at 18:00, down 237.9 points. The onshore/offshore RMB spread at 18:00 was -27.5.

RMB FX Swaps: As of 16:30 Beijing time on March 19, USD/CNY 6-month swap was -795 points; 1-year swap was -1,521 points.

USD: The dollar index plummeted 0.87% on March 19, closing at 99.222. At NY close, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1560 USD (up from 1.1516), 1 GBP for 1.3404 USD (up from 1.3341), 1 USD for 157.83 JPY (down from 159.41), 0.7905 CHF (up from 0.7902), 1.3727 CAD (up from 1.3701), and 9.3180 SEK (down from 9.3346).

Economic Calendar