Hexun Investment Advisor Yu Xingdong: A-shares can still rise, especially in the second half of this year

On March 21, Yu Xingdong, a Huaxun Investment Advisor, stated that many people are concerned about the support level below the market. With a full position, they wonder whether to continue holding or reduce their holdings next week. Others who followed pre- and post-Chinese New Year advice and are holding cash are watching the 4,000-point level be broken and are asking when they can enter the market to buy the dip. Today, he explained this all at once. Yesterday, he mentioned that a volume-driven decline in the market is not a sign of bottoming out. Even today, despite major positive news, A-shares still fell sharply. However, he believes that a volume-driven decline is not a bad thing; it indicates that chips are being sold off continuously, and the market is accelerating toward the bottom. Only when all sellable chips are sold can the market truly bottom out. The market will go through a process from high-volume decline to low-volume decline, and then to extremely low volume at the bottom, which is the pattern of a bottoming process. Currently, two consecutive days of volume decline suggest an accelerating bottoming process, and next week is likely to enter a low-volume phase. From a timing perspective, this decline cycle is estimated to end within half a month; from a price level, the support around 3850 is relatively solid. Considering both time and space, it’s not far from the current position but still has some distance. So, everyone should avoid blindly buying the dip and wait a little longer.

Now, the key question: how should those fully invested and trapped next week? April will enter the period of concentrated disclosure of annual and quarterly reports, and the stock situation will be exposed quickly. If holding high-position thematic stocks that previously surged, with average performance and driven by hype, do not hold on stubbornly—exit now. If holding stocks with solid fundamentals that have already risen and experienced a period of adjustment, such as commercial aerospace or storage chips, you can hold them for now and tough it out without rushing to sell. The most troublesome are pharmaceutical and food & beverage stocks, which previously did not rise much, are not at high levels, and lack clear upward logic. If holding long-term, you can simply hold steadily without watching the software. For short-term trading, it’s better to exit because stock rises require outside capital support; without external funds, the stock cannot move up. Just like the previous prediction that AI security would explode after March 15, but if funds do not recognize or participate, the market cannot move forward.

Finally, for those holding cash and looking to buy the dip, two critical indicators are indispensable: first, wait for the market to show a volume decline, with selling pressure significantly easing—that is, reaching a bottom at the lowest volume; second, the market should fall near an important support level, at least breaking below 3,900 points and approaching 3,850 points to be relatively safe. Only when these two conditions are met should you consider taking action.

In conclusion, he encourages everyone to endure a little longer and stay patient. The A-shares can still rise, especially in the second half of this year, when the 4,200-point level will be stepped on.

(Chief Editor: Cui Chen HX015)

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