Michael Saylor: He is still the man who has walked with us through the long years.

Author: @oyoovi

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There are many passersby in Bitcoin, but the man who can accompany you through bull and bear markets forever is Michael. When the wind is favorable, his foresight and flamboyance are indeed very similar; when facing headwinds, only foresight is willing to continue paying the price. I used to have no special impression of @saylor, but now I feel that whether actively or passively, he is one of the very few who are willing to rewrite the company’s structure with Bitcoin faith and continue executing in a bear market, consistently maintaining BTC’s battered reputation, which is admirable.

Besides the amount of holdings, I haven’t paid much attention to MSTR for a long time. Today, after looking again, our thinking needs to upgrade along with Michael. The market used to focus on the mNAV premium flywheel; MSTR is simply a BTC spot shell disguised as a listed company’s ETF. As BTC peaked in October 2025 and then fell, MSTR’s mNAV compressed to 1.2x, meaning analysis strategies can no longer just look at how much BTC it holds and assign a rough valuation. The real focus becomes: if mNAV is no longer high, can the Strategy machine still create miracles?

Let me briefly say two points for you to remember.

As of last week (March 8, 2026), Strategy holds 738,731 BTC; circulating shares are 342.23 million shares, and fully diluted shares are assumed to be 374.51 million.

Assuming fully diluted shares: the total number of common shares issued and outstanding at each reporting period (including disclosed ATM sales), plus all unexercised or unsettled warrants, pre-financing warrants, stock options, and restricted stock units that would be issued upon full exercise.

At the close on March 13, 2026, BTC is about $71,000, and MSTR stock price is about $140.

1. About mNAV

· Currently, there are three common mNAV measures (according to bitcointreasuries): · Basic mNAV: market cap based on circulating shares / BTC value. · Diluted mNAV: market cap based on fully diluted shares / BTC value. · EV mNAV: enterprise value (EV) / BTC value.

MicroStrategy’s official figure of 1.19 should be EV mNAV. This multiple has fallen far below the peak in 2024, which was about 3.4 times. We need to note why EV mNAV is more scientific: because Strategy is gradually moving away from a simple ATM-based buy-and-hold model, and its current product line is complex. Using EV as a measure is closer to the company’s financing structure and more reasonable; the best reference is the total enterprise value relative to BTC reserves, rather than just the market cap or fully diluted market value relative to BTC.

2. About BPS

Last year, the most common question when discussing MSTR was: why is the market willing to give it a 2-3x or even higher premium? Now, after the flywheel has obviously slowed down (since last August to December, buying was relatively less), why is the market still willing to give it about 1.2x instead of trading directly at spot prices?

If MSTR were just a container holding BTC spot, then a convergence of mNAV towards 1 is natural. But it hasn’t fully become a pure spot shell, indicating that the market is likely still pricing in several factors:

· The future ability to increase BPS through professional management. · The company’s basic survival capability for ongoing operations. · The faith demonstrated by management during the bear market (this is not abstract; even selling just 1 BTC now could be devastating to confidence—trust in the power of belief). · The flexible allocation among preferred shares, debt, and common equity, like a chef skillfully balancing ingredients.

EV mNAV considers these factors at the company level: BTC asset pool, debt, preferred shares, cash, and overall capital structure. At this stage, buying MSTR’s common stock is not just about whether the company is worth this money; more importantly, it’s about all the financing, issuance of preferred shares, convertible instruments, leverage used to buy BTC—whether each share ultimately corresponds to more BTC.

This question EV mNAV cannot answer. Because EV mNAV is broader, BPS (Bitcoin Per Share) is closer to common stock investors’ core concern. If financing methods were still simple, mNAV would be central. But as financing tools diversify and their weights disperse, BPS becomes more important. Therefore:

• For MSTR common stock, the most important thing should no longer be just total holdings and mNAV, but to start focusing on BPS (Bitcoin Per Share).

Strategy’s official website has explicitly stated that the long-term goal is to increase BPS.

“In 2026, we remain focused on expanding STRC to generate amplification and drive growth in Bitcoin Per Share (BPS) for MSTR common stock investors,” said Phong Le, President and CEO.

This fully implies that MSTR’s valuation model should change to:

MSTR stock price = static per-share BTC value + future BPS upside options value

In other words, the market is buying: the current reserve + the expectation that the professional management / survival / faith / allocation power can continue to increase the BTC per share.

For example: Previously, MicroStrategy mainly relied on issuing common stock as a heavy assault force to confront short-sellers directly, which was aggressive but had obvious issues: single troop type, volatile supply, and if the main force faltered, the entire formation could collapse. Now, it no longer relies solely on direct assault; it has built logistics warehouses ($2.25 billion in interest reserves) and a more complex alliance team, bringing different troop types into the fight, forming a group army system:

· Main assault force: MSTR · Convertible reserve: STRK · Dividend-paying reinforcements: STRC / STRF / STRD · Logistics reserve: USD Reserve

The core strength of Strategy lies in layering volatility and selling it to different capital classes. In this system:

· Common stock MSTR bears the most volatility and enjoys the greatest upside potential. · Tools like STRC, STRF, STRD, STRK attract income-oriented or low-volatility funds; note! These tools do not have direct claims on the company’s BTC holdings. · USD Reserve provides buffers for preferred stock dividends and debt interest payments.

In essence, Saylor’s push is not just about accumulating more BTC, but about a more mature capital structure: keeping BTC volatility mainly at the common stock level, stabilizing credit, and integrating income-oriented capital into the system.

3. In a low mNAV environment, BPS is more important than mNAV

Last year, buying MSTR was about the high mNAV environment where the common stock flywheel continued its positive spiral; now, buying MSTR in a low mNAV phase means the main common stock is temporarily holding back, and after layered capital tools like STRK / STRC / STRF / STRD, can this machine still convert external capital into higher BTC per share (BPS)? Because of this, in a low mNAV stage, BPS is closer to the core variable that ordinary investors should focus on, rather than mNAV, which has degraded into a financing constraint; BPS has become the result indicator.

As of March 8, 2026:

· Total BTC: 738,731 · Circulating shares: 34.223 million (A: 32.259 million / B: 1.964 million) · Fully diluted shares: 37.451 million

Therefore:

· Basic circulating BPS = 738,731 / 34.223 million = approximately 0.002159 BTC/share · Fully diluted BPS = 738,731 / 37.451 million = approximately 0.001973 BTC/share

At the BTC price of $71,000 on March 13, 2026, U.S. stock market close:

· Basic circulating BPS corresponds to about $153 per share in BTC value. · Fully diluted BPS corresponds to about $140 per share in BTC value.

MSTR’s stock closed at about $140 on March 13, 2026. This figure is very significant (there’s a slight price mismatch because the data for this week has not been updated, so BPS is a bit lagging; mainly providing the framework, but it shouldn’t be too far off).

• Reality: At the current price, if we look at the BTC attributable to common shares based on the fully diluted BPS, including future dilution boundaries, MSTR is almost at no premium. This indicates that the market’s valuation of the future value of the four powers options is essentially zero.

4. The core focus: the future value of the four powers (professional, survival, faith, allocation) options

The key question now is: do the four powers options have future value?

1. Continuing to increase BPS through professional management: still capable of turning in positive scores during downturns

What does this power evaluate? Whether the company can keep turning new capital into more BTC per share. As we just saw, in terms of post-dilution BTC per share, the market currently almost does not assign future BPS premium to common stock. According to Strategy disclosures, in 2025 and 2026 so far:

· BTC Yield (growth rate of BPS) = 22.8%, with BTC down 6% in 2025. · BTC Yield = 1.2%, with BTC down 19% in 2026.

In the environment of a significant BTC retracement in 2026 (peak to fall 40%), Strategy’s BTC Yield YTD remains positive at 1.2%, indicating that the marginal BTC per share is not negative, and the engine of BPS growth is still working. This means that even in a bear market, the machine can still sustain this narrative. Given the deep retracement of BTC prices now, if BTC rebounds, financing windows improve, and BPS continues to rise, the market has room to reprice this power.

2. The company’s ongoing survival strength: still resilient, positive score

What does this evaluate? Whether, regardless of short-term coin price fluctuations, the company has enough foundation to continue operating, raise funds, and buy time in a bull market. Currently, BTC at about $71,000, with 738,731 BTC, corresponds to:

· BTC asset value of about $52.4 billion, with MSTR market cap around $44 billion. The underlying asset pool remains strong. · Cash buffer / distribution coverage: Strategy discloses USD Reserve = $2.25 billion, enough to cover about 2.5 years of dividends and interest. · Capital market channels: Strategy disclosed raising $25.3 billion in 2025, completing five preferred stock IPOs, making it one of the largest equity issuers among U.S. listed companies. This indicates the company’s capital market access remains open.

Survivability is at least assured for 1-2 years.

3. Management’s faith power during bear markets: only forward, positive score

This power is straightforward. Strategy increased holdings in 2026, now holding 740,000 BTC. The official strategic stance remains unchanged, and Strategy’s website continues to define itself as:

· Bitcoin Treasury Company · indefinite bitcoin horizon · aiming to long-term increase BPS

This power is valuable because one of Strategy’s biggest intangible assets is: market belief that it will not sell BTC. If this anchor breaks, the valuation of common stock, preferred stock, and debt instruments will be forced to reprice. Therefore, the third power can only move forward, not backward.

4. The allocation power among preferred shares, debt, and common stock: a master of arrangements, positive score

Through a rich financing line, MicroStrategy slices its BTC asset pool and creditworthiness into different structured products with varying durations, volatility, yields, and dilution paths, selling to investors with different preferences.

· STRC: $3.8 billion, non-convertible, monthly payments, cumulative dividends, high-yield credit instrument. · STRK: $1.4 billion, convertible, quarterly payments, fixed 8% cumulative dividends, most clearly diluting common stock. · STRF: $1.3 billion, non-convertible, quarterly payments, fixed 10% cumulative dividends, highest priority, long-term senior credit. · STRD: $1.4 billion, non-convertible, quarterly payments, fixed 10% but non-cumulative, attractive yields, weakest protection.

Not all funds can buy MSTR common stock. But through these four tools, it attracts capital that would otherwise avoid common stock or be reluctant to face BTC volatility. Strategy’s real rarity is not just the determination to buy BTC, but its ability to organize different capital preferences into the same Bitcoin machine.

5. Conclusion

Based on the above four powers and the current situation where MSTR’s market value is close to or slightly below its fully diluted BTC per share value, the company’s equity market cap is also below the BTC reserve value. When the sum of the four powers remains clearly positive, this valuation state can be defined as: static parity + dynamic option undervaluation.

Therefore: when MSTR’s stock price falls below the fully diluted BTC per share value (BPS * Bitcoin price), the market is essentially assigning a negative expectation to the future of these four powers. If BTC Yield remains positive, financing tools are still operational, and the capital structure does not significantly erode the value of common stock, this negative valuation is often not a risk itself. At least within 1-2 years, it may actually represent a good value zone.

This is purely personal opinion. If I said anything wrong or incomplete, I will not revise it.