S&P 500 Stocks Lead Five AI Plays Near Buy Points

Top S&P 500 stocks Texas Pacific Land (TPL), the state’s largest private landowner, and hard-disk storage drive maker Seagate Technology (STX) lead this weekend’s watchlist of five stocks near buy points. Semiconductor equipment maker Nova (NVMI) nuclear energy components supplier BWX Technologies (BWXT) and electrical power equipment manufacturer Powell Industries (POWL) round out the list.

All five stocks fit into the category of “pick-and-shovel” plays on the growth of AI and related energy demand. Yet that designation has only recently been applied to TPL, which has exploded to the No. 2 S&P 500 stock this year behind Sandisk (SNDK), with an 81% year-to-date return. Seagate, which is among four storage plays in the top 12 among S&P 500 stocks, is ranked No. 11 with a 49% return.

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All of the stocks have an excellent IBD Composite Rating between 96 and 98, out of a possible 99, according to IBD Stock Checkup. The single rating combines both fundamental and technical factors.

Nova is part of the IBD 50 flagship list of leading growth stocks. Check here for new additions to IBD stock lists.

S&P 500 Struggles

The S&P 500 slid 1.5% on Friday, extending its losing streak to three sessions and four straight weeks. The S&P 500 knifed through its 200-day moving average to a six-month low.

The path ahead is highly dependent on the Iran conflict and its impact on global energy prices, with plenty of upside and downside risk, but little clarity. Surging Treasury yields amid rising gas prices and other war fallout suggest stagflationary possibilities.

Stocks Jump After Sell-Off As  Trump Mulls ‘Winding Down’ Iran War

Plenty of caution is advised. Be sure to read IBD’s The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.

IBD advised subscribers on the afternoon of March 13 to reduce exposure to 0% to 20% from the prior 20%-to-40% range. However, that’s subject to change at any time.

It’s important to stay engaged. Often the big winners of a new uptrend take off as a new market rally takes hold.

Texas Pacific Land

Texas Pacific Land, which owns about 880,000 acres in the Permian Basin in West Texas, was featured as IBD Stock Of The Day on Wednesday. The company leases land to oil and gas companies, usually in exchange for royalties on their sales. TPL also provides water services to the lessor companies, which accounted for about 36% of revenue in 2025.

In a Dec. 1 note, KeyBanc initiated coverage on TPL, saying it was emerging from a “multi-decade run as a sleepy public entity” and would begin to capitalize on its power generation and data center opportunities, according to The Fly investment news site. Two weeks later, Texas Pacific announced its first data center land deal with Bolt Data & Energy, while making a $50 million investment in the startup company.

More deal news is set to follow this year, Texas Pacific said in its February earnings call. High energy prices are another potential positive.

TPL fell 2.5% to 519.41 on Friday, ending the week down 2.2%. After eclipsing a 349.63 buy point from a cup base on Feb. 6 with a 6% gain, Texas Pacific went on a tear, surging 50.50% for the month.

Since hitting an intraday high of 547.20 on Feb. 23, TPL has etched out a three-weeks-tight pattern, with weekly changes of no more than 1.5%, according to MarketSurge. The 547.20 top of that pattern is a new buy point. TPL has been in a long consolidation since November 2024. From that perspective, the latest tight formation looks like a handle on the end of a massive base.

Seagate Technology

Seagate and Western Digital (WD) together have captured 87% of the hard-disk-drive market, according to Evercore ISI. About 80% of data in cloud environments is stored on hard-disk drives, which are cheaper than flash memory and require less energy.

“AI has been the center of discussion with our customers in terms of their need to increase storage,” CFO Gianluca Romano told a March 3 Morgan Stanley technology conference. “In the last couple of quarters, video AI has been the reason for that additional increase in demand,” Romano said, according to a FactSet transcript.

Seagate was set to start shipping 40-terabyte drives this quarter, up from 30-terabyte, to meet that demand.

STX stock fell 5.4% to 411.23 on Friday, but still climbed 7.2% for the week. A weekly MarketSurge chart shows that Seagate has a 459.84 buy point from a six-week cup base. A move past Friday’s  high of 439.73 could flash an early entry opportunity on a break above the trendline that slopes down from its Feb. 12 high.

Nova

Nova makes advanced metrology and process control solutions used in semiconductor manufacturing. In the Feb. 12 earnings call, CEO Gabriel Waisman noted that its major chipmaking customers, which include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC), Samsung and Rapidus, have already announced higher capital spending, contributing to the positive outlook.

Waisman discussed the emerging segment of silicon photonics that has been fueled by AI. The technology uses light photons instead of electrons, enabling “ultrafast data transmission at low power consumption,” he said. It requires very high accuracy measurements of optical structures. That’s opening new opportunities for Nova, he said. “We expect positive momentum to propel our performance in the coming quarters.”

NVMI slipped 1.4% to 465.30 in a downside reversal, but still rose 8.6% on the week. NVMI has a 507.27 buy point from an eight-week consolidation. A move past Friday’s high of 494.10 could present an early entry opportunity.

Nova’s MarketSurge chart has a blue dot, which highlights the fact that NVMI’s relative strength line is hitting a new high. That tends to be a bullish sign when it comes ahead of a breakout. The RS line is the blue line in IBD charts that tracks a stock’s performance vs. the S&P 500.

BWX Technologies

BWX Technologies, the U.S. Navy’s main nuclear reactor supplier, is seen as a winner from AI-fueled power demand, in part because it is positioned to benefit from expansion of both legacy and newer nuclear technology. On March 12, TD Securities analyst Marc Bianchi highlighted BWXT’s “technology-agnostic” service in starting coverage with a buy rating and 230 price target.

Bianchi said several growth opportunities could yield $10 billion in opportunities for BWX. In Q4, new commercial power business bookings more than doubled billings, according to a BTIG note after the Feb. 23 report.

EPS grew 17%, while revenue rose 19%, way ahead of estimates. The growth was driven by nuclear components, fuel and fuel handling, and medical sales. However, revenue can be lumpy, and the company signaled that the first-quarter will be relatively soft, with 55% of full-year EBITDA generated in the second half of the year.

BTIG raised its price target to 235 from 225, keeping a buy rating, after the earnings report. The firm highlighted commercial nuclear power new business bookings of more than double its Q4 billings.

BWXT stock has a seven-week consolidation with a 220.57 buy point, right next to a cup base. Shares tumbled 4.9% on Friday to 199.75, back below their 50-day line. BWX Tech did climb 2.9% for the week. A move above last week’s high of 212.87 would provide an early entry.

Powell Industries

Powell Industries, featured as Friday’s IBD Stock Of The Day, provides specialized electrical gear and services for the oil & gas industry, which accounts for about half of its revenue. Serving utilities and commercial developments, including AI data centers, has given its business and stock a jolt.

Powell’s backlog grew to around $1.6 billion in the latest quarter, with data centers accounting for 12% to 15% of the total, CFO Michael Metcalf said at a Wednesday conference. The company added $100 million in data center work to its order book last quarter.

Powell’s electrical utility backlog rose 30%. Overall new orders totaled $439 million, or 1.7 times sales, its largest book-to-bill ratio since the June 2023 quarter.

POWL slipped 1.8% to 516 on Friday but rose 2.6% on the week. Shares bounced higher after testing the 50-day moving average on Thursday. A move past last week’s high of 537.12 would break the trendline from the Feb. 12 peak and offer an early entry.

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