Another throat also in danger? Yemen's Houthis threaten to blockade Bab el-Mandeb Strait

According to Xinhua News Agency on March 20, Yemen’s Houthi political bureau member Mohammed Buhaiti recently publicly stated that the organization might block the Strait of Mandeb to support Iran.

The Strait of Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and is considered a “throat” linking the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans, known as a “water corridor” connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa.

The Houthis are considering all possible options to support Iran in resisting military strikes from the United States and Israel. If they have to close the Strait of Mandeb, Yemen’s Houthis will only attack ships involved in attacks on Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine.

The northern and southern parts of the Red Sea are respectively served by the Suez Canal and the Strait of Mandeb, two major transportation routes. About 12% of global trade, including 30% of container shipping, passes through the Suez Canal. If major shipping companies suspend Red Sea transit, shipping costs will rise further, causing a chain reaction in product prices.

Ships avoiding the Red Sea and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope will increase transit time and costs. Industry insiders say that depending on the destination and sailing speed, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope could add two weeks to a month to transit time. The transportation cost per vessel could increase by $400,000 to $1 million.

The distance between the Strait of Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iranian forces, is approximately 2,500 kilometers.

Since the outbreak of the Yemen civil war in 2014, the Houthis have gradually taken control of key ports along the Red Sea, such as Hodeidah and Salif. In 2019, the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks from northern Yemen on Saudi oil fields in the Eastern Province, halving Saudi oil production and causing a temporary spike in global oil prices.

After the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023, as part of Iran-backed “Resistance Axis” forces, the Houthis frequently used drones and missiles to attack Israel-related ships passing through waters like the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis’ weapons mainly include missiles, drones, and rockets, but they lack formal naval warships. Due to the lack of necessary equipment, it was previously widely expected that the Houthis could not fully blockade the Strait of Mandeb. During the most intense phase of the Yemen civil war, the organization threatened to completely block the strait but did not carry out the blockade.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Center recently warned that, given regional conflicts and the hostile attitude of the Houthis toward commercial shipping, the situation on both sides of the Red Sea remains a security threat. Ships from all countries could become the next target or be affected.

Leveraging its geographical advantage at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and Africa, Saudi Arabia is actively upgrading its ports and shipping routes along the Gulf of Aqaba, aiming to establish itself as a new global trade hub.

Saudi Ports Authority has partnered with shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to add two new shipping routes at Jeddah Port, each with a capacity of about 17,000 TEUs. Through these routes, Jeddah Port will connect with nine major regional and international ports, including Tianjin, Qingdao, Ningbo, and Shanghai.

Additionally, Saudi energy giant Saudi Aramco recently revealed a major shift in its export strategy, confirming that some of its crude oil exports are now rerouted to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast. Using a pipeline through the desert interior, Saudi Arabia has restored oil exports to over 60% of pre-war levels.

During the Yemen civil war, the Saudi-led coalition assisted the Yemeni government in fighting the Houthis. Currently, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are at a critical turning point from long-term hostility toward limited détente, but mutual security trust remains fragile.

As the largest oil producer in the Gulf region, several Saudi oil officials have stated that if supply disruptions continue into late April, oil prices could surge above $180 per barrel.