Urea Futures Rational Pullback, Spot Market Steady with Upward Trend

Today, the domestic urea futures market showed a significant decline, mainly dragged down by a sharp drop in international oil prices, with market sentiment shifting from optimism to caution. Previously, escalating conflicts in the Middle East once raised concerns about urea supply and transportation channels in the international market, pushing up international urea prices. However, last night, the US’s easing stance on the Middle East situation led to a sharp decline in global risk premiums. Today, the domestic chemical sector generally came under pressure and retreated, with urea futures weakening accordingly. Coupled with domestic policy-guided price restrictions and high-level supply suppression, market sentiment gradually returned to rationality.

However, as it is currently the peak season for spring farming, agricultural and industrial demand still provides strong support. Overall, spot market transactions are good, with some companies awaiting order support, and prices remain firm, providing a bottom support for futures.

Overall, the significant decline in urea futures today mainly reflects a rational return of market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, domestic daily production remains high, and policy-guided prices still exist, exerting downward pressure on prices. But with strong support from spring farming demand, the short-term market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. In the medium to long term, high industry supply will continue to be the core factor limiting price increases.

In summary, the main contract 05 remains dominated by peak season trading logic, with sentiment support not yet fading. In the short term, the market will mainly stay firm, but attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East, international energy price trends, and changes in domestic policies. (FeiduoDuo)