Zhang Yao Xi: Powell Brings Decision, Gold Price Expected to Maintain Oscillation and Await Rebound

March 18: The trading day on Tuesday (March 17): International gold continued to fluctuate and close, despite unresolved geopolitical tensions. Iran’s first attack on upstream oil and gas facilities in the UAE and other major oil prices strengthened, limiting gold price rebounds. However, due to market anticipation of this week’s Federal Reserve decision and future policy outlook, gold remains oscillating around the $5,000 mark. Given the current lack of sustained bearish pressure, technical patterns suggest a bottoming and bullish outlook. If prices pull back further, support is seen at the 60-day moving average, and a continued bullish rebound is also possible.

In terms of specific movement, gold opened in Asia at $5,006.99 per ounce, initially rebounded to a daily high of $5,044.02 at midday, then faced resistance and declined, oscillating lower. After hitting a daily low of $4,973.89 at 11:30 p.m. U.S. time, it rebounded and entered a narrow range above $4,997, finally closing at $5,005.48. The daily range was $70.13, down $1.51, a 0.03% decline.

Looking ahead to Wednesday (March 18): International gold opened with narrow fluctuations. The market will continue to wait for the Federal Reserve’s FOMC rate decision and economic outlook summary at around 2 a.m. U.S. time, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference for further guidance.

Currently, market expectations are for rates to remain unchanged. “The Fed’s voice”: The Fed is inclined to stay silent this week, so the trend is expected to continue oscillating.

However, after a period of adjustment, gold prices are still expected to rise because, whether reviewing history—comparing gold’s response after oil prices surged—or interpreting the current situation, gold is ultimately likely to turn upward.

Historical comparisons are well known and have been repeatedly explained. Although Iran’s stance remains firm and the U.S. will not show weakness, risks will persist. The core issue remains the Strait of Hormuz. Once oil issues are resolved, pressure on gold prices will ease.

According to White House economic advisor Hasket: Oil tankers are beginning to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran’s conflict is expected to last weeks rather than months. The U.S. plans to relax sanctions on Venezuela to address rising oil prices. Iraq has resumed oil exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan port since Wednesday; additionally, Iraq is negotiating with Iran to allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, among other measures, which has limited the rebound of oil prices.

Therefore, the future outlook suggests that conflicts and inflation caused by oil prices will remain deadlocked but unlikely to intensify further. Gold prices will gradually adjust, waiting for the return of rate cut expectations, central bank buying, de-dollarization, and economic concerns to trigger another rise.

Technically, on a monthly chart, gold has shown weakness this month but remains above the 5-month moving average and above the upward trendline broken in January, indicating a still favorable bullish outlook. If prices continue to fall this month, support levels are at the May (4800) or October (4400) moving averages, which can be seen as potential bullish reversal points.

Conversely, if prices break below the trendline support and close below 4300, it would signal the end of the bull market, with further declines potentially to 3500 or even lower, around the 3000 level.

On the daily chart, gold has formed two consecutive days of oscillating doji reversal patterns, indicating a potential bullish rebound back to $5,200 or $5,400. The ZZ indicator also shows a bottoming during the pullback, suggesting a possible rebound. However, the current trend remains below the midline and other moving averages, with the accompanying indicators still signaling a bearish trend. Short-term risks of decline remain. Medium-term traders can consider buying on dips with support at the 60-day moving average. Short-term traders should focus on intraday signals for bullish or bearish entries.

Real-time trading guidance and specific entry points will be provided based on actual positions.

Preliminary intra-day trading levels (subject to actual position notifications):

• Gold: Support at around $4,970 or $4,955; resistance at around $5,050 or $5,080.
• Silver: Support at around $78.40 or $77.20; resistance at around $82.00 or $83.20.

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