Oil prices may surge over 1.6 yuan/liter, returning to the 9 yuan era. How can ordinary car owners respond?

On March 23rd at 24:00, the domestic refined oil prices will enter the sixth adjustment window. Many industry organizations predict that the current round of price increases could significantly expand, with the price of 92-octane gasoline expected to rise by more than 1.6 yuan per liter. Overall, domestic oil prices may return to the 9 yuan per liter range, attracting widespread attention from vehicle owners.

From a pricing mechanism perspective, during this adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices have generally remained in a high range, significantly above the reference average level. Industry analysts believe that if international oil prices do not show a clear decline in the future, there is still potential for further increases in retail price limits for refined oil.

According to the Jinjianchuang valuation model, assuming international oil prices remain unchanged at the level on March 16, the theoretical increase in domestic retail prices for refined oil would be about 2,000 yuan per ton. If implemented at this level, the retail prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and No. 0 diesel are expected to increase by approximately 1.60 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 1.70 yuan per liter, respectively.

For common household vehicles, with a tank capacity of 50 liters, filling up the tank would cost about 80 yuan more than before the price adjustment; for a 70-liter tank, the cost per fill-up could increase by about 112 yuan. For frequent commuters, the rising cost of driving will become even more apparent.

Looking back at previous price adjustments, at 24:00 on March 9, domestic oil prices completed the fifth increase of 2026, with retail gasoline prices rising by between 0.52 and 0.61 yuan per liter. Currently, in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the price of 92-octane gasoline has generally exceeded 7.6 yuan per liter. If this round of price hikes is realized, some regions’ prices will directly enter the 9 yuan per liter range, creating a clear psychological threshold.

In the context of potentially sharp increases in oil prices, ordinary vehicle owners are not without options to respond. They can reduce the impact through adjustments in driving habits and refueling strategies.

First, plan refueling times reasonably. If there is a genuine need to drive and the tank is not full, refuel before the price adjustment window to avoid paying higher prices after the increase. However, it is not recommended to excessively top up just to stockpile fuel, as this could affect driving safety and the efficiency of funds.

Second, modify driving habits to reduce fuel consumption. Maintaining smooth acceleration and steady speeds, avoiding rapid acceleration and braking, and using air conditioning and onboard electrical appliances reasonably can help lower fuel consumption per 100 kilometers over the long term. For drivers with relatively fixed commuting routes, optimizing travel times and avoiding congested areas can also indirectly reduce fuel use.

Third, consider alternative travel options. When conditions permit, increase the use of public transportation, walking, or cycling for short trips to reduce dependence on private cars during high fuel price periods. For families with multiple vehicles, prioritize using models with lower fuel consumption.

Additionally, in the long term, vehicle owners can reassess their vehicle usage structure based on their driving intensity. For example, pay attention to the changing costs of hybrid or pure electric vehicles, or share rides and carpool to share fuel expenses, thereby improving overall travel efficiency.

Overall, the significant increase in oil prices this round has become highly probable. In the face of prices returning to high levels, ordinary vehicle owners need to adopt detailed driving plans and rational strategies to mitigate the impact of fuel price fluctuations on daily life.