# Global Selloff Review and Next Week Strategy

## I. Core Reasons
Super-hawkish Federal Reserve decision, oil prices pushing inflation higher, surging US dollar—a triple resonance massacre for risk assets.

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## II. Key Trigger: March 19 FOMC Meeting

Signal | Impact
---|---
Rate cut expectations zeroed out | Year-over-year only 1 cut → 7 officials see "zero cuts"
Powell goes hawkish | Not ruling out further rate hikes, higher rates "longer and higher"
Data deterioration | PPI hits one-year high, oil prices + geopolitical tensions add fuel to the fire
US dollar siphon effect | Capital flows back to US Treasuries, gold, tech stocks, and commodities under pressure

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## III. Market Performance (March 20)

- US Stocks: Dow down 600 points, Nasdaq retraced 10%
- European Stocks: German DAX drops over 10%, energy + geopolitics + weak economy triple hit
- Gold: Plunged nearly 8% for the week, largest drop in years
- Crude Oil: Consolidating at highs, institutions warn of "exhausted momentum"

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## IV. Next Week Outlook

Direction | Logic
---|---
Consolidation bottoming | Non-trending bear, high volatility shakeout
Institutional accumulation | Retail panic selling → low-level accumulation → squeeze rebound (reference CPO model)
Don't chase crude | Even if it rises further, it's the end stretch
Gold and base metals | Oversold, potential rebound; bottom-fishing needs position sizing in tranches

**Operational Recommendations:** 50% position size, no panic selling, no chasing highs; monitor non-farm payroll data in early April; tech sector rotation lower for accumulation.

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## V. One-Line Conclusion
March selloff is expectation correction + market panic; next week likely the final dip; manage positions, don't chase, build tech positions on dips.

> Investment involves risks. Above are personal views for reference only. #Gate13周年全球庆典