Trump left himself plenty of room to maneuver: If I really do send ground troops, I won't tell you about it

What strategic considerations are behind AI and Trump’s ambiguous statements?

【Text / Observer Network Wang Yi】Whether the U.S. military will “step in” has become a focus of external attention. Several U.S. media outlets have disclosed that President Trump is weighing his next move against Iran, and the Pentagon has submitted a series of specific plans to prepare for potential ground operations.

According to CBS on March 20, multiple insiders said Trump has been considering whether to deploy ground troops to Iran, but it is unclear under what circumstances he would approve the use of ground forces.

On the 19th, when asked in the White House Oval Office whether he would send ground troops to Iran, Trump told reporters, “No, I will not send troops anywhere.” But he quickly added, “If I were to do that, I definitely wouldn’t tell you.” The New York Times interpreted this as leaving room for him to change his stance.

On March 19, local time, Trump gave an interview to the media at the White House. [Video screenshot]

Regarding the reports, U.S. Central Command referred media inquiries to the White House and the Pentagon for responses. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated in a release: “The Pentagon’s responsibility is to prepare for all scenarios and provide the Commander-in-Chief with as many options as possible. This does not mean the President has made a decision. As the President said yesterday in the Oval Office, he currently has no plans to send ground troops anywhere.”

However, two sources revealed that the U.S. military has discussed how to handle potentially detained Iranian soldiers and paramilitary personnel if the President decides to deploy ground forces, including where to transfer these personnel.

Reports indicate that the U.S. is preparing to deploy the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, involving military planning with the Army’s Global Response Force and Marine Expeditionary Units.

Currently, thousands of Marines are being moved to the Middle East. Two U.S. officials said earlier this week, three ships and about 2,200 Marines from an expeditionary force have departed from California. This is the second Marine unit dispatched since the conflict began, and it is expected to take several weeks to deploy fully. The first unit departed from the Pacific and is still en route.

According to NBC, two current U.S. officials, two former officials, and an informed source disclosed that several options are under discussion. One involves deploying forces to Iran’s coastal areas to reduce threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Before reaching this critical global energy chokepoint, ships must pass key points such as Abu Musa Island and the Tunb Islands, where Iran has military forces. U.S. officials believe deploying troops to these areas is strategically significant for controlling the waterways.

Another possible ground action is controlling the oil facilities on Khark Island, about 15 miles (approximately 24.14 km) from Iran’s coast, which accounts for about 90% of Iran’s oil production. The U.S. conducted airstrikes on this island last week. U.S. officials say that, compared to airstrikes, sending hundreds of soldiers to control the facility could cut off Iran’s main source of revenue, severely damaging its economy and pressuring it to negotiate.

Additionally, the most risky but potentially most decisive plan is deploying ground forces into Iran to locate and seize its high-enriched uranium stockpiles, fundamentally eliminating the so-called nuclear threat.

However, sources say the Trump administration is currently seriously considering options that do not involve large-scale ground deployments like those in Iraq or Afghanistan.

Two current U.S. officials and two former officials said that the scale and duration of deploying U.S. troops inside Iran would depend on the specific operation, ranging from hundreds of special forces conducting hours-long missions to thousands of troops operating for weeks.

Joe Costa, director of the “Frontier Defense” project at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, analyzed that these operations vary in difficulty but are all high-risk tasks with the potential for U.S. soldier casualties. He pointed out that compared to air strikes, ground operations carry higher risks, “and are much more dangerous for soldiers.”

Since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, 13 U.S. military personnel have been killed. Insiders said that U.S., Israeli, and allied officials recently held joint briefings. Intelligence shared at the meetings suggests that once U.S. ground forces are deployed, Iran-backed armed groups are likely to attack U.S. bases. U.S. allies in the Gulf region also generally hope to end the war quickly, fearing Iranian retaliation.

Domestically, Trump faces criticism from some supporters. Joe Kent, a former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, recently resigned, stating he disagreed with the decision to go to war, believing the Iranian regime does not pose an “imminent threat.”

A Reuters and Ipsos poll conducted on the 19th showed that about 65% of American respondents believe Trump would launch a large-scale ground war against Iran, while 55% oppose any ground invasion of Iran, and only 7% support such action.

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.