Strait of Hormuz, big news! Israeli Defense Forces issue the latest statement!

Latest Developments in the Strait of Hormuz

Today, according to Xinhua News Agency, a Greek bulk carrier with its Automatic Identification System (AIS) activated is passing through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. This marks the first time since March 2 that a vessel in traceable status has transited the strait into the Persian Gulf. Additionally, Japanese sources report that on the 20th, Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghazi stated in a phone interview that, after negotiations with Japan, Iran is willing to allow ships related to Japan to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Regarding Middle East conflicts, CCTV News reports that on the 21st, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying they are striking “Iranian regime targets” in Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran’s retaliatory actions continue. According to U.S. media, Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles at the “U.S.-UK joint military base” Diego Garcia in the central Indian Ocean.

Latest Developments in the Strait of Hormuz

On March 21, Xinhua News Agency, citing Lloyd’s List on the 20th, reported that a Greek bulk carrier with AIS activated is passing through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.

The vessel, named “Jacometti,” flies the Liberian flag and is operated by a Greek bulk shipping company. AIS shows it is carrying “food supplies bound for Iran.”

The report states that on the 20th local time, the vessel bypassed Larak Island, following a route similar to the “safe corridor” designated by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

It also reports that at least nine other ships are using the same route, approaching the Iranian coast and bypassing Larak Island, with the IRGC visually confirming ships passing through the strait.

The report further mentions that on March 5, a Panama-flagged ship transited westward through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, but it was operating in stealth mode with its AIS system turned off.

Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting quoted the above report, stating that ships are advised to keep their AIS transponders on if they agree to pay a $2 million transit fee, as this makes passage safer.

According to CCTV News and Japanese sources, on the 20th, Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghazi said in a phone interview that, after negotiations with Japan, Iran is willing to allow ships related to Japan to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Alaghazi stated that both sides are discussing the temporary lifting of the blockade.

As conflicts escalate, many ships related to Japan are stranded in the Persian Gulf. For Japan, which relies on Middle Eastern oil imports for over 90%, whether ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz is of great importance.

Alaghazi said Iran has not blockaded the Strait of Hormuz but has restricted passage for ships of hostile countries attacking Iran. He added that ships from non-hostile countries wishing to pass can do so safely after negotiations with relevant nations.

Israeli Defense Forces Statement

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 21st, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying they are striking “Iranian regime targets” in Tehran.

Saudi Arabian TV quoted Israeli sources that day, reporting that Iranian security commander Ahmad-Reza Radan was targeted in the Israeli airstrike on Tehran, but no further details were provided. Iran has not issued any official response.

Additionally, The Wall Street Journal, citing sources on the 20th, reported that Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles at the U.S.-UK joint military base Diego Garcia in the central Indian Ocean, with one failing in flight. U.S. warships launched interceptors against the other missile, but it is unclear whether it was intercepted. The timing of this event was not specified.

Multiple U.S. officials told the WSJ that Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles about 4,000 km from its homeland toward Diego Garcia, neither of which hit the base. This indicates Iran’s military influence extends far beyond the Middle East.

Previously, Iranian media reported that Foreign Minister Alaghazi stated Iran had limited missile ranges to within 2,000 km, and these missiles are purely for defense and deterrence.

The Chagos Islands, located about 750 km northeast of Mauritius in the southwestern Indian Ocean, were ceded to British colonial authorities in 1965. The following year, the UK leased the main island, Diego Garcia, to the U.S. for an airbase. On May 22, 2025, the UK signed an agreement with Mauritius, officially transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Under the agreement, the Diego Garcia military base will be leased to the UK and the U.S. by Mauritius.

Former U.S. President Trump claimed that the U.S. military might use the Diego Garcia airport to target Iran. However, the UK initially refused U.S. use of the base citing international law. On March 1, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the UK had agreed to allow the U.S. to use the military base for “specific and limited” defensive purposes.

UBS Warning

Due to the continuous escalation of tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices have surged. On Friday, WTI crude futures rose by 2.27%, closing at $98.32 per barrel; Brent crude futures jumped by 3.26%, closing at $112.19 per barrel, the highest since mid-2022.

UBS’s latest report states that the current multiple adverse factors facing the U.S. economy make this round of oil price increases more damaging than previous ones.

The report notes that although international oil prices remained high from 2011 to 2014, the U.S. shale oil boom provided a strong buffer for the economy during high oil prices—losses in consumer purchasing power were partly offset by job creation, capital expenditure, and industrial output driven by shale oil investment. After 2014, U.S. shale oil investment sharply declined, and this buffer has largely disappeared, making current oil price rises harder to offset for the U.S. economy.

The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment of the U.S. today differs significantly from previous high oil price cycles. First, the U.S. labor market is weaker than between 2011 and 2014; second, U.S. households have less capacity to withstand external shocks; third, inflationary impacts are more intense, and rapid oil price increases have a stronger pass-through effect on overall prices. These factors suggest that the current oil price surge could weigh more heavily on U.S. economic growth than expected.

The Wall Street Journal recently published a survey of economists, showing a 32% chance of a U.S. recession within a year—higher than the 27% forecast in January. If the average oil price reaches $138, the recession risk could rise to 50%.

Layout: Wang Lulu

Proofreading: Su Huanwen