Guolian Minsheng Securities: International Industry Leaders Lead + Domestic Innovators Catch Up; Optimistic About Long-Term Growth Potential in the Dexterous Hand Industry Chain

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that as the industrialization of humanoid robots accelerates, the flexible hand industry chain has long-term growth potential. Automotive parts companies with strong customer positioning advantages and high-volume manufacturing capabilities, whose main products are highly compatible with robotics, are well-positioned. Many automakers are entering the humanoid robot sector, leading to significant overlap between the robot supply chain and the automotive industry.

Guolian Minsheng Securities’ main points are as follows:

International leaders lead + domestic newcomers catch up, Tesla drives development

The flexible hand industry began in the 1970s, with Japan’s Okada pioneering in 1974; in the 1980s, the US and Japan advanced integrated technologies; in the 21st century, Chinese universities achieved breakthroughs. Over the past five years, the industry has accelerated. Tesla launched the Optimus series in 2022, featuring more integrated designs, with continuous iterations that have made it a benchmark in the humanoid robot industry. Domestic companies like Yushu Technology and Lingqiao Intelligence have also launched their own flexible hand products. Currently, flexible hands are evolving toward higher degrees of freedom, tactile sensing, and cord-driven transmission.

Diverse technologies and converging technical routes

The future of flexible hands will focus on underactuated architectures for degree of freedom design, combined with efficient motor drives (mainly brushless DC motors and hollow cup motors), and transmission schemes that fuse cord-driven and link mechanisms, supplemented by force sensors and tactile sensors to enhance perception. This creates a technical system balancing flexibility, response speed, and reliability. This approach has been validated by advanced flexible hands like Tesla’s Optimus and ShadowHand, which will promote more natural, precise operations and broader application scenarios for humanoid robots.

Market space worth hundreds of billions, deepening core component company layouts

Tesla’s Optimus third-generation is expected to be released in Q1 2026. The company forecasts continued growth in shipments throughout 2026, with Elon Musk predicting that in the next 4-5 years, mass production could reach hundreds of thousands of units, creating a market scale exceeding 100 billion yuan. Flexible hands are a key end-effector in humanoid robots. Currently, domestic listed companies are deepening their layouts in core components such as motors, tendons, screw rods, sensors, and covers.

Investment recommendations

1. Participants: The flexible hand industry originated in the 1970s. Over the past five years, industry progress has accelerated. Main participants include research institutions (early industry, mainly universities) and companies (scaling up production, increasing participants). Tesla is leading and shaping the industry. Domestic companies like Yushu Technology, Zhiyuan, Xingdong Jiyuan, and others involved in humanoid robots, as well as flexible hand companies like Lingxinqiao and Lingqiao Intelligence, started later but may play important roles as the industry scales.

2. Product focus: Based on overall value, domestic substitution rate, and market size, key areas include: 1) Motors: the “heart” of flexible hands, providing direct drive; 2) Screw rods: high technical barriers with large domestic substitution potential; 3) Tendons: high technical barriers and wide application scenarios; 4) Sensors: technological upgrades aligned with the trend toward flexibility. Currently, these niche segments show high value and growth potential. Companies with advantages in the supply chain are expected to benefit first from the industrialization of humanoid robots.

Recommended focus: Companies involved in automotive parts and robotics layout for flexible hands, such as Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Dechang Motor Holdings, Hengshuai Shares, Fuda Shares, Lingyun Shares, Rongtai Shares. Also pay attention to Zhejiang Rongtai, Fulaixin Materials, Daimai Shares, Riyi Electronics, Reidike, New Coordinates, Xinzhi Group, Anpeilong, Zhenghe Industrial, Mingxin Xuteng, Nanshan Zhishang, Hengkui Security, Taili Technology.

Risks: AI technology development underperforming expectations, mass production delays, hardware cost reductions falling short, market demand not meeting expectations, and technological route changes.