Accelerating slump followed by reversal rebound nodes drawing closer, prepare contingencies! ~ (2026.03.21 Review)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today’s Shanghai Composite Index -1.24%, ChiNext Index +1.30%, STAR Market 50 Index -1.55%, total market turnover 22,868 billion yuan, 662 stocks rose, 4,786 stocks fell, market turnover increased by 1,759 billion yuan compared to yesterday.

Overall Market Sentiment: Broad decline with some sectors showing strength
Number of limit-up stocks: 28 (same as yesterday)
Number of stocks hitting the 20-cent limit-up: 2 (same as yesterday)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 7 (slightly fewer than yesterday’s 8)
Number of limit-down stocks: 13 (up from 5 yesterday)
Today’s break rate (炸板率): 45.1%, up from 26.3% yesterday
First limit-up success rate: 15%, up from 12% yesterday

Today’s Major Stocks with Large Flows
Jiechuang Intelligent -17, Computing Power
Jinji Shares -16, Computing Power
Litong Electronics -15, Computing Power
Pre-market (before 9:45): Rapid recovery of large-cap stocks from the previous day is an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s High-Volume Surprising Stocks in Bidding
Zhongji Xuchuang / Baiwei Storage

Global Sector Chain Summary:
5-Board: Huaneng LiaoNeng (Electric Power), Shenhua Development (Robotics, Shenzhen Old District Reform)
3-Board: Dashengda (Chip Investment), Shaoneng Shares (Electric Power)
2-Board: Huaneng Energy (Electric Power), Guo New Energy (Gas), Dongfang New Energy (Electric Power)

1. Sentiment Cycle and Key Point Analysis:
Limit-up stocks are at the lower extreme of the overall range, consecutive limit-up stocks are also at the low end, break rate (炸板率) has increased significantly, and limit-down stocks have surged, indicating continued downward sentiment with some panic selling. The total market turnover ratio of limit-up stocks to total market is 0.16, at the low extreme. Compared to yesterday, the most notable changes are the sharp increase in break rate and炸板率, signaling intensified panic and short-selling momentum, suggesting the current phase is a continuation of the downtrend cycle.

Sentiment Temperature:
Extremely weak, close to freezing point.

Tomorrow’s Short-Term Market Sentiment Anchors:
Jinniu Chemical, Huaneng Energy, Huaneng LiaoNeng
Before 9:45, the market’s positive/negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchors will serve as signals for ultra-short-term bullish or bearish conditions.

Recent Strong Sectors, Top Sector of the Day, and Notable Stocks:

2. Capital Flow Analysis:

Loss Effect -
Concentrated in sectors like computing power, oil, chemicals, representing recent hot topics undergoing correction or rotation.
Structural differences: some stocks show different trend structures, e.g., Cx Data, Hongjing Technology, Sanfangxiang, Jinzengda as representatives.

Profit Effect -
No obvious overall profit effect; partial concentration in electric power, photovoltaic energy storage, lithium batteries, optical chips, indicating localized sector rotation and strength.
Structural differences: some stocks show different trend structures, e.g., Huaneng Energy, Yuanjie Technology, Shouhang New Energy.

Capital Flow Summary:
Besides the recent partial profit effect in AI Electric Power, funds focus intra-day on optical modules, optical chips, photovoltaic energy storage, and lithium batteries, with clear signs of quantitative funds competing, multiple sell-offs, and buy-the-dip signals. Continue to wait for the exhaustion of short-selling momentum before considering entry points.

3. Sector Analysis:
Today’s sectors or concepts showing a benign trend structure include: Photovoltaic equipment/inverters/optical chips/electric power (partial).
These sectors or concepts represent recent profit effects and high recent fund involvement, suitable as ultra-short-term stock selection directions.

AI Electric Power (Electric Power, Computing Power Collaboration) -
In the fourth phase of the trend cycle.
First phase led by China Western Electric, followed by Sanbian Technology, Baobian Electric.
Second phase led by China Western Electric, Dongfang Electric, followed by Baobian Electric, Tebian Tiegong.
Third phase led by China Energy Construction, GCL Energy Science, Jinkai New Energy, Hanlan Shares, alternating leadership.
Fourth phase led by Shunnao Shares, Jinkai New Energy, Huaneng Energy, alternating leadership.

Core of the previous trend: Hanlan Shares, Shunnao Shares, entering deep consolidation, reducing expectations, waiting for the next explosive wave or else a correction.

Core of the previous high: Yunnan Energy Holdings, stabilized after correction, as the first to open high in this wave, with sector still having a second wave fantasy. Regulatory restrictions limit further gains, leading to small positive daily moves and sideways trend.

Recent anti-dip core: Jinkai New Energy, Huaneng Energy, GCL Energy Science, still above the 5-day trend line, alternating leadership, maintaining sector hot money effects, waiting for the next breakout.

Connected Board Stocks: Huaneng LiaoNeng, as a stock with high resistance to sector breakout, unlikely to end easily before sector completion; if it continues to advance and breaks recent resistance, funds may follow for further gains, possibly strengthening short-term sentiment.

AI Electric Power Path in Today’s Market:

During bidding, Huaneng LiaoNeng opened high, Reisconda hit a one-word limit (uncertain whether optical module or computing power attribute, confirmed optical module after breakout), sector leader Huaneng Energy opened flat, Jinkai New Energy slightly lower, no clear divergence or attack signals at opening, need to observe fund confirmation.

Post-open, Shaoneng Shares hit a quick limit-up, Zhaoxin Shares, Gansu Energy, Changyuan Power, Dongfang New Energy quickly hit limit-up, sector leader Huaneng Energy surged, Huaneng LiaoNeng showed divergence and quickly moved up, Jinkai New Energy surged past yesterday’s breakout line, signaling sector recovery. Note a detail: recent trend core Shunnao Shares, Sunnan Co., and others weakened quickly, indicating internal sector fund mismatch. Subsequently, Jinkai New Energy pulled back sharply, Huaneng LiaoNeng broke off, many stocks opened with heavy buying but then fell back, multiple failed attempts to recover.

Some funds during the session attempted to rebound after breakout, stabilizing the sector’s basic structure, overall showing a high pullback and consolidation pattern.

Notable signals for AI Electric Power today:

1. Huaneng Energy, which successfully positioned itself yesterday, continues to lead, while Jinkai New Energy was sold off, and Huaneng Energy’s late-stage breakout phase. GCL Energy Science attempted to regain leadership but was pulled back, sector internal trend core alternates leadership.
2. The previous core stocks Hanlan Shares and Shunnao Shares are now lagging and breaking down, affecting overall bullish sentiment. Watch for signs of stagnation in these stocks before next potential wave.
3. Lithium batteries and photovoltaic energy storage, regardless of reasons for strength, support AI Electric Power via hot money effects, indicating potential for a second wave of extended or divergent gains.

Recap of recent AI Electric Power path:

On 03.06, China Energy Construction led the upward trend, separating from the old leader China Western Electric, as the core of the first wave. Followed by Jinkai New Energy, Hanlan Shares, GCL Energy Science, Yunnan Energy Holdings, etc., until 3.16 when China Energy Construction corrected below the 5-day trend line, signaling the end of the first wave.

Subsequently, the sector entered a consolidation phase. On 3.17, Shunnao Shares hit a limit-up, with low-level correction in Huaneng LiaoNeng, re-initiating a second wave. Sector effects re-emerged with three signals: attempts at a second wave recovery.

In the following days, sequential leadership by Shunnao Shares, Jinkai New Energy, Huaneng Energy, with daily sector effects, indicating a trial-and-error phase of the second wave, similar to the pre-adjustment of the second wave in commercial aerospace: Shanhao Shares, Tongyu Communications, ZaiSheng Technology, etc.

This phase features:

1. Continuous alternation of leading stocks within the sector.
2. Daily or every-other-day “divergence–convergence–divergence” emotional shifts.
3. Daily partial profit effects (sector effects) attracting hot money.

In summary, AI Electric Power is currently the most promising sector for a second wave, with signs of entering a stagnation phase nearing its end. If extreme negative signals appear at mid-high levels, with no significant breakthroughs or sector effects, expect a withdrawal.

Tomorrow’s key signals to observe for sector strength:

1. Whether Huaneng LiaoNeng can continue to break through recent resistance for a second wave.
2. Whether Huaneng Energy can proactively break the abnormal trend line or avoid it, indicating sector’s fast/slow rhythm.
3. Whether core anti-dip stocks Jinkai New Energy or GCL Energy Science can lead intraday gains.
4. Whether short funds represented by Shunnao Shares continue to decline.
   If these signals are positive, local profit effects may continue.

Artificial Intelligence (Computing Power, Chips) -
In the 13th phase of the trend cycle.
First phase led by Haili Shares, Chunzhi Technology, followed by Zhangjiang High-tech.
Second phase led by Haili Shares, Dongxin Shares, followed by Zhangjiang High-tech.
Third phase led by Chunzhi Technology, Huasheng Tiancheng, Yingweike, with Feilong Shares and others following.
Fourth phase led by Huasheng Tiancheng.
Fifth phase led by Cambrian, Haiguang Information.
Sixth phase led by Huasheng Tiancheng.
Seventh phase: no core leader, local rotation.
Eighth phase led by Industrial Fuxian, Shenghong Technology.
Ninth phase: no core leader, various branches alternate upward.
Tenth phase led by Demingli, Xiangnong Chip, Jiangbolong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shenghong Technology.
Eleventh phase led by Blue Cursor, 360, Vision China.
Twelfth phase: alternating rotation and trial-and-error.
Thirteenth phase led by Tongfu Microelectronics, Haiguang Information.
Fourteenth phase led by Changfei Optical Fiber, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Hangdian Shares.

Q-curve core: Filihua, Ping An Electric, Zhongcai Technology, Honghe Technology—entering correction, short- to medium-term uncertain.
M9 Resin Materials: Dongcai Technology—correction phase, uncertain short-term, medium-long term logic.
Copper Foil Core: Copper Crown Copper Foil, Longyang Electronics, Fude Technology—correction, uncertain short-term, medium-long term.
PCB Orthogonal Backplane Core: Shenghong Technology, Shudi Shares, Shennan Circuit—correction phase, uncertain short-term, medium-long term.
PCB Core: Shudi Shares, M10 material sampling, market expects high elasticity, speculative phase, recent weaker performance from Nan Ya New Material, with a rising trend structure. Low levels focus on logical changes; high levels on trend volume and price, with trend structure as the basis for expectations.
Domestic Computing Power Core: Hongjing Technology, transitioning from paid computing to token-based commercialization, with independent funds controlling, some funds may cash out early, based on trend structure.
CPO/Optical Communication Core: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Dongshan Precision, Liante Technology—relatively independent upward trend logic, based on individual stock trend structure.
Storage Chips Core: GigaDevice, Jiangbolong, Xiangnong Chip, Demingli, Baiwei Storage—likely to trend upward in waves as earnings release, medium-long term logic.

Today’s Tech Sector Path:
During bidding, Zhongji Xuchuang had a volume surge exceeding expectations, Xinyi Sheng, Dongshan Precision, Shudi Shares opened high, Reisconda hit a one-word limit (uncertain attribute, confirmed optical module after breakout). The main signals are in CPO and optical modules, strongest in optical chips: Yuanjie Technology, Changguang Huaxin, Shijia Photonics.

Post-open, Zhongji, Xinyi Sheng, Tengjing Technology, Guangku Technology fluctuated and strengthened, Hui Lv Ecology hit a quick limit-up, Yuanjie Technology accelerated after breaking trend channel. Meanwhile, Shenghong, Shudi showed consolidation, indicating not all overseas chains are strong; local strength driven by news.

Yesterday’s strongest: domestic computing power, opened high but quickly weakened (Aori De), Meili Yun stabilized, Data Port, Yun Sai Zhilian, UCloud, and others weakened, even Hongjing Technology declined. Continuous decline in domestic computing power, no resistance, showing a “price to pay” situation.

Overall, aside from some local strength, the tech sector continues to decline, especially chips and semiconductors, with relative resilience in CPO and PCB leaders, indicating some funds are maintaining positions. If indices and tech sector resonate, performance may not be poor. Overall, the view remains: tech sector is in a range-bound bottoming phase, waiting for a rebound signal with the index.

4. Index and Market Outlook:

As shown, today’s major index broke support and continued downward. According to our review, two signals for stabilization:

1. Index and volume: a day with about 2000 billion yuan of volume decline, panic selling, followed by a narrow range rebound or continued decline with decreasing volume to around 1.8 trillion, indicating potential stabilization.
2. RSI entering oversold zone below 20, meeting conditions for a potential bottom.

Today’s RSI entered the oversold zone, with market volume at 1,700 billion yuan. Can this be considered the first condition? Not yet. Note the volume details: volume mainly occurred in the early session, indicating funds entered early for bottom-fishing, not panic selling at the close. The index remains in a downtrend, so the first condition should be adjusted:
A day with about 1,000 billion yuan of volume decline, followed by a narrow-range consolidation, or a sharp V-shaped rebound with high volume, then narrow consolidation or small positive daily move, indicating short-term stabilization. Focus on sector participation during rebounds.

Tomorrow’s Pre-market Strategy:
Regardless of volume details or the increase in break rate, the short-term bearish momentum has not exhausted. From sentiment perspective, if tomorrow continues to decline without extreme negative feedback, focus on whether the index V-shapes back with increased funds, signaling potential sector resonance and trial-and-error opportunities. If not, wait for the close or next day.
From sector perspective, observe whether hot topics like AI Electric Power attract funds or resonate, and monitor weekend news-driven rotation sectors. As the stabilization point approaches, funds may choose either sector resonance for a second wave or switch to new themes for trial.

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