China Creation Securities Zhang Yu: Ten Key Incremental Insights—Study Takeaways from the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline

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Source: Yiyu Zhong

Text: Huachuang Securities Chief Economist Zhang Yu

【Interpretation of the 20th CPC Central Committee Fourth Plenary Session】

Ten key points—Learning the highlights of the Fourth Plenum communiqué—20251024

Report Summary

On March 13, the Xinhua News Agency authorized the full release of the “Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China.” The Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress approved the plan on March 12, deciding to adopt it.

1. Economic Goals: Doubling by 2035

The “Outline” states, “Based on optimized structure and improved quality, maintaining reasonable growth of GDP, with annual adjustments as needed, laying the foundation for per capita GDP to double by 2035 and reach the level of moderately developed countries.” According to previous official interpretations, “Over the next 10 years, China’s potential GDP growth rate can fully support an average annual growth of 4.17%.”

2. 20 Major Objectives

During the “Fifteen-Five” period, 20 main goals are proposed. Compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan, key changes include increasing the proportion of nursing beds in elderly care institutions and raising the enrollment rate of infants under 3 years old. Green and low-carbon indicators include PM2.5 concentration in prefecture-level and above cities and the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption. Energy consumption targets have been removed.

3. 109 Major Projects

Compared to the 102 projects in the “Fourteen-Five” plan, the “Fifteen-Five” emphasizes more on industrial projects, including enhancing industrial foundation capabilities and competitiveness (6 projects), cultivating new industries and tracks (10 projects), tackling frontier technologies (8 projects), and improving innovation infrastructure (4 projects). Notably, the cultivation of new industries and tracks is a new dedicated section, covering 10 fields such as integrated circuits, embodied intelligence, bio-manufacturing, new batteries, commercial spaceflight, domestically produced large aircraft, low-altitude equipment, green hydrogen, brain-computer interfaces, and high-end medical devices.

4. Deep Integration of Scientific and Industrial Innovation

The plan adds new content supporting sci-tech enterprises, such as establishing a corporate R&D reserve fund system and supporting high-quality tech companies’ listing and bond issuance, including developing a “Science and Technology Board” in the bond market, expanding venture capital channels, and leveraging national venture funds and M&A funds.

5. Advancing Digital China

The “Outline” expands on this area significantly, emphasizing strengthening computing power infrastructure, promoting model and algorithm innovation, including building large-scale AI computing clusters, supporting market-based operation of computing facilities, and fostering green data centers. It also encourages breakthroughs in AI fundamentals, multi-modal and embodied intelligence, general AI development, and application upgrades.

6. Building a Fertility-Friendly Society

A new chapter—“Chapter 37: Building a Fertility-Friendly Society”—has been added, emphasizing policies to support childbirth, including establishing dynamic subsidy adjustment mechanisms, implementing flexible work arrangements for parents of infants under 3, increasing public childcare facilities, supporting integrated childcare services, and improving maternal and child facilities.

7. Infrastructure: Focus on New Infrastructure, New Energy, and Urban Renewal

The plan advocates “moderate ahead-of-schedule development” of infrastructure, emphasizing integrated planning, structural optimization, and resilience. It highlights key projects such as national integrated computing networks, satellite internet, data infrastructure, low-altitude infrastructure, and major energy bases, including hydropower, offshore wind, nuclear power, and natural gas pipelines.

8. Industry: Many emerging industries mentioned

Strategic emerging industries include next-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, intelligent connected vehicles, robotics, biomedicine, high-end equipment, aerospace, etc. A new addition is robotics. Other sectors include ocean economy, low-altitude economy, domestic large aircraft, Beidou navigation, intelligent driving, new solar cells, energy storage, innovative drugs, quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, sixth-generation mobile networks, and more.

9. Security: Greater emphasis on energy, resources, and mineral safety

Compared to the “Suggestions,” the security section adds measures such as strengthening government and enterprise reserves, expanding strategic petroleum reserves, ensuring stable crude oil and natural gas production, exploring mineral resources, and enhancing international cooperation on energy and resource security.

10. Consumption: Increase the proportion of development-oriented consumption

Specific measures include promoting service consumption—such as education, training, health, tourism, cultural and sports activities, and leisure travel—supporting flexible employment and new employment forms with social insurance, reforming wage distribution mechanisms, and enriching financial products for residents’ wealth management.

For detailed content, see Huachuang Securities’ report released on March 16: “Top 10 Incremental Information—Learning Insights from the ‘Fifteen-Five’ Plan.”

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