Everbright Futures: March 17 Soft Commodities Daily Report

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Sugar:

(Author: Zhang Xiaojin, Professional Qualification Number: F0306200; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0000082)

In terms of news, according to data from the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), as of March 15, 2025/26 crushing season, there are 173 remaining sugar mills in India, down 27 compared to the previous year; total sugar production is 26.175 million tons, up 2.46 million tons year-on-year. Regarding spot prices, Guangxi Sugar Group quotes between 5420 and 5510 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group quotes between 5300 and 5350 yuan/ton, stable; mainstream prices for processed sugar mills range from 5700 to 5910 yuan/ton, with some adjustments of 10-30 yuan/ton, showing mixed movements. On the macro front, last night the US dollar index and crude oil prices declined, causing a retreat in raw sugar prices from high levels. Future focus should be on the support around 14 cents per pound. The Gulf situation remains complex and volatile, and the market currently lacks a clear trend. Domestically, fundamentals are characterized by abundant production, stock accumulation, and macro disturbances, leading to high-level fluctuations in sugar prices. Attention should be paid to whether the 5400 yuan/ton level can hold and to January-February import data.

Cotton:

(Author: Sun Chengzhen, Professional Qualification Number: F03099994; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0021057)

On Monday, ICE US cotton rose by 3.93%, closing at 68.44 cents per pound. Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 0.58% compared to the previous period, closing at 15,480 yuan/ton. The main contract holdings decreased by 13,387 lots to 711,900 lots. The cotton 3128B spot price index is 16,580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. Currently, regional conflicts in the Middle East continue and fluctuate, disturbing market sentiment. Last night, crude oil prices fell, and the US dollar index weakened, providing some support to cotton prices. Regarding news, the National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional import quota of 300,000 tons of cotton processing duty-free, which aligns with the recent trend of US cotton being relatively strong and Zhengzhou cotton slightly weaker. Looking ahead, two key factors to watch are the changing situation in the Middle East and new cotton planting conditions. Short-term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, but there may still be some support in the medium to long term.

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Editor: Li Tiemin