US Market Close | Trump Says He Doesn't Want Ceasefire, Dow Down 443 Points, US Long-Term Bond Yields Hit Six-Month High, September Rate Hike Probability Reaches 40%

Iran conflict escalates; on Friday, President Trump told reporters, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate, the Dow drops over 600 points at one point; U.S. long-term bond yields hit a six-month high, market now prices in a 40% chance of rate hikes in September.

The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577; the S&P fell 1.51%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.01%; Friday was quadruple witching day for U.S. stocks. Tesla and Nvidia shares both fell 3.2%. The U.S. accused server manufacturer Supermicro (SMCI) executives of smuggling Nvidia chips into China, causing its stock to plunge 33.3%.

According to four sources cited by Axios, a U.S. news website, the Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Taking control could expose U.S. troops to more direct fire. Currently, three different Marine units are heading to the area, and the White House and Pentagon are considering deploying more forces soon.

If successful, this could ease oil prices; if it fails, it could escalate conflict. Markets are betting on this, with Brent crude initially rising 2%, then fluctuating.

The report states such actions would only occur after U.S. forces further weaken Iran’s military capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz. “We need about a month to strike and further weaken Iran, take this island, and hold their critical points as leverage for negotiations,” a White House source said.

Approval of such an operation would require more troops. Currently, three Marine units are en route. A U.S. official said the White House and Pentagon are considering deploying additional forces quickly.

However, inflation pressures remain high. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.387%, a six-month high. The dollar index increased 0.33% to 99.56.

CME FedWatch now estimates the probability of a rate hike this year has increased from about 20% on Thursday (19th) to nearly 40%.

Federal Reserve officials continue to support easing. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she still favors three rate cuts by the end of the year to support employment but is watching Iran’s war impact, though she believes it’s too early to judge.

Another Fed official, Christopher Waller, said a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would signal greater inflationary pressures. While the situation is uncertain, he does not think the rest of the year should be spent on hold. He admits that if U.S. employment weakens, he would advocate for rate cuts later this year, emphasizing that there’s no need to raise rates now.

Gold prices fluctuated, with spot gold down 3.32% at $4,496.51, marking the largest weekly decline since 1983; Bitcoin fell 2.73% to $69,398.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Trump may deploy troops and take over Kharg Island in Iran. Dow drops 100 points; Supermicro plunges 28%.

【20:00】Trump may deploy troops and take over Kharg Island. Dow futures down 134 points.

【15:14】Dow futures down 12 points at 46,329; S&P futures down 8 points at 6,652; Nasdaq futures down 60 points or 0.2% at 24,519.

【15:04】NY crude drops 1% to $94.6; Brent crude down 0.3% at $108.3. Gold futures in NY up 1.6% at $4,681; spot gold up 0.7% at $4,681.

【15:04】【SMCI】Supermicro night trading drops 20% after executives are indicted for allegedly smuggling AI chips into China.

【12:54】【Gold analysis】Gold once tested $4,500, the weakest weekly performance in six years. Analysts say the safe-haven effect is not clear, and short-term outlook remains weak.

【12:41】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI plans to integrate ChatGPT, Codex, and launch a super app to simplify user experience and compete with Anthropic.

【11:19】【AI + Nvidia】Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: AI leader should be cautious to avoid causing public panic. “Warnings are good, scare tactics are not.”

【10:19】【Gold trend】Gold faces its largest weekly decline in six years, with prices retreating to what level per ounce?

【08:20】【Iran crisis】Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: No more strikes on Iran’s oil and gas facilities.

【07:58】【Iran crisis】Bisset: Removing Iran’s oil sanctions allows oil to flow outside China, affecting market prices (updating).

【07:29】【Pearl Harbor】Trump meets with Sanae Takamatsu. Japanese reporter: Why was the war not announced beforehand? Trump: You didn’t tell me about Pearl Harbor either.

Below $1: U.S. stock market overview for March 19:

Thursday: Trump halts Israel’s attack on oil fields; Brent crude nearly all gains erased; gold continues to fall.

Following attacks on Middle Eastern oil facilities, the U.S. increased oil supply by possibly releasing strategic reserves, considering lifting sanctions on Iran’s oil, and approving purchases of certain Russian crude. Oil prices initially rose then retreated. Brent crude hit a high of $119.13, up 10.9%, closing at $107.83. NY crude rose 5.4% to $101.48, then fell 0.2% to $96.14.

Market updates:

【E1】▲ US stock futures: Dow down 12 points; Nasdaq down 0.2%; oil prices retreat. NY crude down 1% (updating).

Market close:

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Additional updates:

Trump writes that “Israel will no longer attack this extremely important and valuable gas field,” and calls on Iran to exercise restraint. Later, at the White House, he said he told them not to do so.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. will not interfere in oil-related financial markets but may release reserves to lower prices. She admits the U.S. might unilaterally release strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). Rumors of U.S. intervention in oil futures markets are false; the U.S. will not interfere in financial markets.

Gold fell 3.5%, closing at $4,650.02; silver down 3.4% at $72.8251.

U.S. stocks declined: Dow down 203 points at 46,021; S&P down 0.3% at 6,606; Nasdaq down 0.3% at 22,090.

After meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takamatsu, Trump is expected to announce a nuclear project in the U.S. South on Thursday (19th), a new initiative driven by the investment fund set up under the trade agreement. Sources say GE Vernova (GEV) and Hitachi will build BWRX-300 small modular reactors in Tennessee and Alabama, costing up to $40 billion.

Japanese investment benefits U.S. AI industry; tech stocks narrow losses or rebound. Nvidia (NVDA) down 1%; AMD up 2.9%. Alphabet (GOOGL) down 0.2%. Micron (MU) down 3.8% after earnings; Tesla (TSLA) down 3.2%.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry intercepted a ballistic missile over Yanbu, temporarily halting oil loading at Yanbu port, causing oil prices to spike. Later, Yanbu resumed operations. The Ministry also reported a drone crash at the SAMREF refinery, a key Yanbu facility, with damage assessment ongoing.

Iran previously indicated that after attacks on its natural gas fields, the Yanbu-based South Pars refinery was among the targets. Additionally, Qatar’s largest LNG export facility and UAE gas fields have been attacked, along with other energy infrastructure in Kuwait, escalating Middle East tensions.

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Market updates:

【E29】▲ US and Japan to jointly build nuclear projects in the U.S. South, with $40 billion investment. Micron’s decline narrows to 2%.

【E30】No intervention in oil markets but reserves may be released. Brent crude up 5% in May; gold plunges 6%; Dow down 302 points.

【E31】Bisset: U.S. does not mind Iran, India, China ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, considering Iran’s release as natural, aiming for sufficient global oil supply.

【E32】Focus stocks: Nvidia (NVDA) up 2.6%, at $184.93, Huang speaks at GTC. Data center firm Nebius (NBIS) up 15.4%, will supply Meta with $12 billion capacity from early 2027, with Meta planning to buy up to $15 billion more. Meta up 1.9%.

This week’s focus: U.S. February PPI data released Tuesday; Federal Reserve meeting results Thursday. Major central banks (ECB, BoE, BoJ) also scheduled to meet. Micron (MU) reports earnings Wednesday after market close.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated; see the next page for details.

Market updates:

【E57】▲ Trump: Likely to delay China visit by about 5-6 weeks; “We are working with China, no issues. Looking forward to meeting President Xi. We have good relations. China’s economy has become very beneficial for us, very different from before.”

【E58】Huang: Has obtained approval to sell H200 AI accelerators to many Chinese clients, ramping up production. GTC continues until Thursday; stock down 0.7%, at $181.93.

【E59】UAE’s largest super-acid natural gas project hit by drone; Fujairah Oil Industry Zone fire affects loading. Abu Dhabi’s Shah gas field, with 1.28 billion cubic feet daily, also attacked, operations still halted.

【E60】Iran intensifies attacks on Saudi Arabia, firing nearly 100 drones—far exceeding the usual 25 per day—largest single-day strike since conflict began. Iran increasingly relies on low-cost drones for large-scale attacks, challenging air defenses.

Another oil tanker near the strategic Strait of Hormuz was attacked.

Market focus on this week’s Fed meeting; dollar index down 0.1% at 99.58; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2%.

US stocks rebounded weakly: Dow up 46 points at 46,993; S&P up 0.2% at 6,716; Nasdaq up 0.5% at 22,479.

Trump previously called on European, Japanese, and Korean allies to help secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but some are reluctant. He criticized allies for long-term protection but not reciprocating when the U.S. faces difficulties.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, “Most NATO allies have told us they don’t want to get involved in our Middle East actions against Iran. Almost every country agrees with what we’re doing and that Iran must not have nuclear weapons.”

He added, “I’m not surprised. We spend hundreds of billions annually protecting these countries, but NATO is a ‘one-way street’—we protect them, but they don’t do anything for us, especially when we need help.”

He claimed the U.S. has destroyed Iran’s navy, air force, air defenses, and radar, and most of their leadership, so they can no longer threaten the U.S. or its allies. “Because of our military success, we no longer ‘need’ or desire NATO’s help. We never did! Japan, Australia, South Korea are the same.”

“As the world’s strongest nation, we don’t need anyone’s help,” Trump said.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated; see the next page for details.

Market updates:

【E43】▲ Dow opens 375 points higher at 47,321; Nasdaq up 0.6%; S&P up 44 points.

【E44】Dow futures up 21; Nasdaq futures down 0.1%; S&P futures down 1.

【E45】Oil rebounds, Brent up over 4% to $104.8.

【E46】Dow futures down 150 points at 47,139; S&P futures down 23; Nasdaq futures down 97 or 0.4% at 24,794.

【E47】Morgan Stanley: AI disrupts software industry; private credit default rate may rise to 8%.

【E48】South Korea’s Sinokor, a second-generation shipping firm, earns $500,000 daily on super-large oil tankers, leveraging recent geopolitical tensions.

【E49】Oil prices rebound during Asian trading; Brent remains above $100, with potential for further rise if tensions escalate.

【E50】Australia’s central bank raises rates by 25 basis points to 4.1%; warns of inflation spike if fuel prices continue rising.

【E51】Fed Chair Powell: If criminal investigations continue, he may stay on as acting Fed Chair after his term ends.

【E52】AI + Chips: SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won: Global chip shortage may last until 2030.

【E53】Nvidia and BYD, Geely collaborate on L4 autonomous vehicles.

【E54】USDJPY drops to 4.9; Japanese Finance Minister comments on yen weakness, unlikely to hike rates soon.

【E55】Gold remains near $5,000; dollar weakens, market assesses emergency oil reserve releases.

【E56】Morgan Stanley: No rate hikes in June or September despite oil price surge.

【E57】Apple launches AirPods Max 2 with H2 chip, priced at 4,599 yuan, available in five colors, with improved noise cancellation.

【E58】Elon Musk’s xAI hiring bankers and credit experts to enhance Grok finance capabilities.

【E59】Trump delays China visit by about 5-6 weeks; “We are coordinating with China, no issues. Looking forward to meeting Xi.”

【E60】Huang: Approved to sell H200 AI accelerators to many Chinese clients; production ramping up. GTC continues until Thursday; stock down 0.7%, at $181.93.

Market updates:

【E61】▲ Trump: Once the war ends, oil prices will fall sharply; Dow up 393 points, oil down 1%.

【E62】Bisset: U.S. does not mind Iran, India, China ships passing through Strait of Hormuz; considers Iran’s release as natural, aims for sufficient global oil supply; prices may stay high temporarily.

【E63】Focus stocks: Nvidia (NVDA) up 2.6%, at $184.93; Huang speaks at GTC.

【E64】Data center firm Nebius (NBIS) up 15.4%; will supply Meta with $12 billion capacity from early 2027, with Meta planning to buy up to $15 billion more. Meta up 1.9%.

This week’s key events: U.S. February PPI data Tuesday; Fed meeting Thursday; ECB, BoE, BoJ also scheduled. Micron reports earnings Wednesday after hours.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated; see the next page for details.