Retail sales are recovering, with the food and beverage and automotive sectors rising against the market trend! The "trade-in" policy has a significant effect on stimulating consumption.

How does the AI “Trade-In for New” policy differentiate to stimulate segmented consumption?

On March 16 (Monday), during a market adjustment, the domestic demand sectors including food and beverages and automobiles rebounded against the trend, with Food & Beverage ETF (515170.SH) and Huaxia Food ETF (159151.SZ) leading the gains among A-share industry theme ETFs.

According to recent news, the Year of the Horse Spring Festival consumption data exceeded expectations, with retail sales data for January and February showing a rebound. The “Trade-In for New” policy has had a notable promotional effect.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on March 16 show that from January to February, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8.6079 trillion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce also disclosed that as of now, the cumulative sales of goods through the “Trade-In for New” policy have reached 47.623 million units, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, generating sales of 323.26 billion yuan, up 3.2%.

Specifically, 1.008 million applications for vehicle trade-ins have been received, driving new car sales of 164.43 billion yuan; home appliance trade-ins totaled 17.13 million units, boosting sales of 69.44 billion yuan; digital and smart products purchased new totaled 29.485 million units, generating sales of 89.39 billion yuan.

Looking ahead, there is still room for policy to boost consumption, including a 100 billion yuan special fund to stimulate domestic demand, several upcoming policies to support basic livelihood security and consumption, and significant growth potential in county and township markets with relatively low per capita consumption. Since the holiday, the consumption sector has been overly pessimistic, and current sentiment appears to be overly optimistic.

As market styles shift between high and low, attention should be paid to the low-position recovery opportunities of major consumer-related ETFs:

1. Essential food and beverages — Food & Beverage ETF (515170.SH) mainly focused on first- and second-tier liquor brands, and Huaxia Food ETF (159151.SZ) focused on dairy, condiments, and meat products;

2. Discretionary consumption — Discretionary Consumption ETF (562580.SH), emphasizing automotive, home appliances, and retail sectors;

3. Service consumption — Tourism ETF (562510.SH), focusing on duty-free, business travel, and airlines;

4. New consumption — Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxia (513230.SH), emphasizing trendy toys, jewelry, beverages, and other high-elasticity assets in Hong Kong stocks, supporting T+0 trading.