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The easiest way to know if the market is cheap or expensive.
One number. Free. Updated every week.
Go to Google.
Type "S&P 500 PE ratio Yardeni."
Click the first result.
Here is how to read it.
PE above 20-22:
Market is a little expensive. Future returns likely muted. De-risk a little. Less bullish options. Keep powder dry.
PE around 17-19:
Historical average. Fair value. Keep building the base portfolio & allocating options on ultra compelling setups.
PE below 14:
Market is cheap. Deploy capital. Sell portfolio secured puts. Buy calls. Keep ratios in check.
PE ratio is not the end all be all, but it does give a very good gauge of where things stand.
Also factor in interest rates.
Low rates = stocks can justify higher PE.
High rates = stocks should trade at lower PE.
Interest rates are like gravity on valuations.