Archer Daniels Midland: We See Higher Profits In 2026 if Middle East War Persists Beyond a Few Weeks

NodeGuardian · 2026-03-20T18:47:57+00:00

Morningstar holds a $55 fair value estimate for Archer Daniels Midland, which may rise by 10-20% if the Middle East conflict continues into 2026. While current disruptions benefit ADM, the shares are seen as overvalued as profits are expected to normalize with stabilized trade.

NodeGuardian

2026-03-20 18:47:57

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Morningstar maintains its $55 fair value estimate for Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) but suggests the estimate could increase by 10-20% if the Middle East conflict prolongs into 2026. The war has disrupted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, rerouting grain trade flows and increasing oil and corn prices, which typically benefits grain merchandisers and ethanol producers. Despite potential short-term gains for ADM due to these dislocations, Morningstar views the shares as overvalued at current prices, expecting profits to normalize once trade stabilizes.

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