Investment growth turns positive in first two months, National Bureau of Statistics provides detailed explanation

From January to February, private infrastructure investment increased by 9%.

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 16 shows that major economic indicators rebounded significantly in January-February, indicating a good start for the national economy.

Among them, nationwide fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 5.2721 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, compared to a decline of 3.8% for the entire previous year; excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 5.2%.

Spokesperson Fu Linghui of the National Bureau of Statistics stated at a press conference at the State Council Information Office that, influenced by multiple factors, fixed asset investment declined year-on-year last year. Since the beginning of this year, under the effect of policies aimed at expanding effective investment, the growth rate of investment has shifted from decline to increase, especially in key areas where investment has grown rapidly, playing a positive role in optimizing supply structure and expanding market demand.

In terms of sectors, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year in January-February, accelerating by 10.8 percentage points compared to the whole of last year, contributing 3 percentage points to overall investment growth.

Fu Linghui analyzed that this year marks the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a number of major infrastructure projects beginning construction, driving rapid growth in related investments. The acceleration of large project commencements has led to a 5% year-on-year increase in planned total investment projects of 100 million yuan or more in January-February.

Manufacturing investment increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January-February. Wang Qing, Chief Economist at Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that the government work report emphasizes “accelerating the cultivation of new drivers of growth” and “speeding up high-level technological self-reliance,” which suggests that investment in high-tech manufacturing is expected to continue high growth. Manufacturing investment growth may further accelerate in the first quarter.

Structurally, regions are developing new quality productivity according to local conditions, with deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, leading to rapid growth in related investments in new drivers of growth. In January-February, high-tech industry investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with aerospace equipment manufacturing and information services growing by 20.2% and 16.5%, respectively. As industrial technological capabilities improve and high-end equipment manufacturing develops positively, investment growth is strong. Investment in railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 31.1% in January-February.

Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have continued to promote “dual” construction, supported large-scale equipment updates, increased project funding, and facilitated investment growth. State-controlled investment increased by 7.7% year-on-year in January-February, significantly faster than last year; equipment and tools procurement investment grew by 11.5%. Meanwhile, policies to promote private investment have been actively implemented to boost private sector vitality. Private infrastructure investment grew by 9% in January-February.

“From these, it’s clear that actively leveraging government investment to lead and drive private investment has been quite effective,” Fu Linghui said.

He also pointed out that while positive changes are evident, the international environment remains complex and severe, and factors such as domestic real estate market adjustments and weak corporate profitability still constrain investment growth.

The Central Economic Work Conference explicitly called for “promoting investment to stabilize and recover.” This year’s government work report proposes fully exploring and unleashing the potential of effective investment by allocating central budget investments, issuing ultra-long-term special government bonds, and launching new types of policy financial instruments to enhance market-driven effective investment growth and effectively stimulate private investment vitality.

Fu Linghui stated that in the next stage, efforts will focus on key areas such as the development of new quality productivity, new urbanization, and comprehensive human development, combining “investment in physical assets” and “investment in people” to better promote economic growth and improve people’s livelihoods.