Seeking Opportunities in Structural Market Trends: Rising Prices and Technology May Be Key Deployment Terms

Recently, the A-share market has entered a key window for style switching after policy expectations have become clearer. Although the overall index shows a trend of oscillation and consolidation, underneath, the themes of price increases and technological growth have alternated in activity. Performance elasticity driven by supply constraints and growth potential from industry trends are now the core logic for capital deployment. Analysts believe that, amid the battle between performance certainty and growth space, leading stocks with core competitiveness are likely to continue attracting market attention.

Supply Constraints Drive Performance Elasticity

In March, the market has been battling between the themes of “price increases” and “technology,” with the price increase logic accelerating from upstream resource products to midstream sectors like chemicals and agriculture.

Although the non-ferrous metals sector has recently pulled back, the basis for price increases remains solid. The tungsten mining concept sector strengthened on March 18. Wind data shows that, by the close of that day, the Wind Tungsten Mining Concept Index rose 1.50%, with Zhongyuan Tungsten and China Rare Earth both up over 2%, and companies like China Tungsten High-tech and Xianglu Tungsten also gaining. On the news front, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network reports that on March 18, the average price of black tungsten concentrate (≥55%) remained high at 920,000 yuan/ton, doubling since the start of the year. Rigid supply constraints remain the core support for prices. As a strategic mineral resource, tungsten’s total extraction is strictly controlled, downstream hard alloy demand remains steady, and the supply-demand gap is unlikely to ease in the short term.

The signal of price increases in the chemical sector continues, but there is differentiation within the sector. The dispersed dye concept sector has been active. Wind data shows that, as of March 18, the Wind Dyes Concept Index rose 1.46%, with Runhe Materials up over 4%, Jinjing Co. up over 3%, and companies like Shuangle, Bairhua, and Runtu also gaining. Recently, Runtu Co. stated during investor surveys that the prices of reducing agents have been rising since late January, currently around 100,000 yuan/ton; driven by this, the black dye prices for dispersed dyes have recently increased by about 14,000 yuan per ton, now around 30,000 yuan/ton. Similarly, price hikes are also seen in segments like titanium dioxide and fluorochemicals. The titanium dioxide market continues to see price increases. Recently, Longbai Group issued a new price adjustment letter, raising domestic prices by 500 yuan/ton and international prices by 100 USD/ton, just 14 days after the last increase. Driven by Longbai Group, over 20 companies including Shandong Dongjia and Huiyun Titanium quickly followed, marking the second round of collective price hikes in the industry this year.

Industry insiders believe that, from a deeper logical perspective, the spread of price increase signals reflects that, against the backdrop of moderate demand recovery, supply-side constraints have become a key variable in determining profitability in certain industries. The price elasticity resulting from supply contraction is creating definite opportunities for performance improvement in related listed companies.

Technology Growth Adjusts and Builds Up

Compared to the continued spread of the price increase logic, the previously hot technology growth sector has recently entered a phase of adjustment and accumulation. Since March, sectors like semiconductors and storage chips have experienced some correction, and the STAR 50 Index has faced pressure. However, behind the overall volatility, positive signals from the industry continue to be released, and long- to medium-term growth potential remains intact.

Storage chips are one of the most representative segments in this round of tech market rally. Despite short-term fluctuations, the industry’s supply-demand pattern is reversing. Buwei Storage recently released a performance forecast indicating that the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders from January to February 2026 to be between 1.5 billion and 1.8 billion yuan, a more than ninefold increase year-over-year. The company stated: “The storage industry will enter a high prosperity cycle in 2026, driven by AI computing power and increased localization, supporting continuous rises in DRAM and NAND prices.” On March 18, boosted by industry prosperity, the storage chip concept sector performed actively. Wind data shows the Wind Chip Concept Index rose 2.61%, with stocks like Guoke Micro, Fudan Microelectronics, and Zhaoyi Innovation gaining market attention.

In semiconductors, SMIC recently issued guidance indicating that sales revenue in Q1 2026 will be flat quarter-over-quarter, with gross margins between 18% and 20%. The company expects that in 2026, its revenue growth will surpass the industry average, with capital expenditures roughly on par with 2025.

Analysts generally believe that, from a long-term industry development perspective, the core logic of the technology growth theme remains unchanged. Cultivating new productive forces requires technological innovation leadership. Whether through breakthroughs in AI iteration or the development of the semiconductor supply chain, this direction has broad growth potential. As annual and first-quarter earnings reports are gradually realized, leading tech stocks with core competitiveness are expected to regain market favor.

Focusing on the “Growth + Cycle” Dual-Track Linkage

In the face of oscillating markets and style switching, surveyed securities analysts generally believe that downside risks are limited, and a structured pattern should focus on main themes for deployment.

According to Wind data, as of March 18, 342 stocks have been included in securities firms’ March “gold stock” lists. Zijin Mining, Zhongji Xuchuang, and China Glass are the most recommended targets, followed by Wanhua Chemical, Jereh Group, and Haiguang Information. Industry-wise, electronics, basic chemicals, nonferrous metals, machinery, power equipment, and new energy are the sectors attracting the most attention.

Yang Chao, Chief Strategist at China Galaxy Securities, said that the market’s trading style may show a “policy hot spot rotation and rapid style switching” characteristic, with an overall upward trend amid volatility. The trading logic will shift from simple policy expectations and thematic speculation to performance realization. Wei Jixing, Chief Strategist at Kaiyuan Securities, advised investors not to shake confidence due to short-term fluctuations, and to consider the relative profitability advantage of the technology sector, as the “AI+” theme still has support at this stage.

Regarding specific allocation directions, Li Qiusuo, Chief Analyst of Domestic Strategy at CICC, recommends adopting a “growth + cycle” dual-track allocation strategy recently. On one hand, with continuous AI technological iteration, focus on infrastructure related to cloud computing, optical communications, energy storage, and semiconductors, as well as application opportunities in autonomous driving, robotics, and consumer electronics. On the other hand, although the pro-cyclicality is still in early stages, considering capacity cycles and export demands, sectors like nonferrous metals, chemicals, power grid equipment, and engineering machinery are worth close attention. Additionally, Dai Qing, Chief Strategist at Changjiang Securities, suggests investors focus on opportunities in energy revolution and the development of new and old energy under supply constraints, including lithium batteries, metals, and chemicals.