KeyBanc Selects Top Oil Stocks: Crude Oil Breaks Through $80 Mark

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-19T06:27:47+00:00

U.S. crude oil price increases are benefiting five exploration and production companies significantly. According to a KeyBanc Capital Markets report, Murphy Oil and Diamondback Energy are expected to achieve the highest EBITDA growth rates of 41% and 35%, respectively. Additionally, Magnolia Oil & Gas, EOG Resources, and Talos Energy will also benefit, as rising oil prices have substantially improved these companies' profitability and cash flow positions without hedging transactions.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-19 06:27:47

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Investing.com – The sharp rise in crude oil prices has created clear winners among U.S. oil producers. According to a report from KeyBanc Capital Markets, five exploration and production companies stand to benefit the most from oil prices significantly higher than analyst forecasts.

This week, the 2026 WTI futures price reached $82.54 per barrel, well above KeyBanc’s baseline forecast of $64, prompting the firm to stress-test its earnings and cash flow models. Producers without hedging and focused on oil emerged as the biggest potential beneficiaries.

Murphy Oil ranks first, with the highest projected EBITDA growth of 41% under the futures price scenario, driven by a 50% oil mix and no hedging. Its leverage improves by 0.5x, and its EV/EBITDA compresses sharply to 2.9x, making it one of the cheapest in the group.

Diamondback Energy follows closely, with an estimated EBITDA increase of 35%, benefiting from a 54% oil mix and no hedging. This Permian Basin-focused producer’s EV/EBITDA drops to 4.8x in the futures scenario, with free cash flow growing by 35%.

Magnolia Oil & Gas shows a similar leverage improvement, with no hedging and a 39% oil mix, resulting in a 34% EBITDA increase under the futures scenario. Its EV/EBITDA compresses to 4.5x, and leverage turns negative by the end of 2026.

EOG Resources, with no hedging and a 39% oil mix, offers a 33% EBITDA increase. This large producer valued at $77.3 billion sees its EV/EBITDA fall to 4.7x in the futures scenario, with leverage remaining roughly flat by year-end.

Talos Energy is the smallest company on the list, with a $3.1 billion enterprise value, the highest oil share at 73%, and minimal hedging, resulting in a 31% EBITDA increase. Under the futures price scenario, its EV/EBITDA compresses to just 2.4x, the lowest among the top five picks.

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