After a year of altcoin bear market, many market consensus has been overturned:

1. No one talks about BTC bleeding alts anymore, people realized the issue of high FDV and unlocking.

2. Rotation effect disappeared, meaning the previous pattern where BTC pumps then ETH, then alts no longer exists.

3. Traditional institutional funds lean more towards BTC and major coins.

4. Setting aside top projects, VC-backed projects' value has plummeted.

5. Crypto narratives haven't disappeared, but pure narratives can no longer drive market speculation.

6. The tokenomics, chip structure, and exit paths of a large number of VC projects simply don't deserve CEX listing for pricing.

7. Token listings on CEX don't necessarily bring buying pressure. Most projects' performance post-listing is straightforward - early communities are dumping.

8. Liquidity hasn't evenly dispersed across all alts, it relates to the ability to compete and lock in value.

Fed Chair Powell's dovish moderate remarks were hawkish in substance. Yesterday he mentioned one rate cut in 2026, estimated to occur in Q4 at the latest by December, and even didn't rule out a rate hike possibility. Back when BTC was at 76K, we already mentioned short-term target was reached, including ETH's target of 2350 being achieved similarly!

It's just yesterday's pullback was quite deep. BTC broke below the recent key support of 72.5K, with lows around 70,500. Should we break below 70K this week, the downtrend channel may open, and the rebound will end. ETH simultaneously weakened, dropping to around 2150 the last two days, with maximum intraday drawdown of 10%. I emphasized the past two days that this ETH rebound lacked volume - whether it completely breaks out of the uptrend channel or prepares for the next round of selling is now clear. My personal view is that despite pullbacks, based on MACD indicators, the current market is merely in pullback phase, the rebound hasn't ended! Pullbacks create better space for rallies.

BTC touched bottom around 70.5K, showing intraday oscillation at bottom support. Currently the 4-hour level needs to continue testing the bottom; no bottom-fishing pattern has formed yet. Intraday focus on the 70K-69,500 zone, not ruling out gap-down piercing then rapid recovery. Upside intraday pressure focus on 72.5-73K zone.

ETH's pullback depth this round is quite significant - in just days, one night brought it back to square one. The 4-hour level needs continued pullback intraday. Intraday focus on bottom bounce support at 2140-2120 zone, upside pressure focus at 2230-2250 zone. For the 4-hour level to reopen the uptrend, we need stabilization above 2250.

$ETH