"15th Five-Year Plan" sees over 60% of its 109 major engineering projects shifting towards "new" initiatives

The recently released “Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” proposes the implementation of 109 major projects across six areas during the “Fifteen-Five” period. These projects are highly innovative, including 28 projects leading new quality productivity development, 23 projects building a modern infrastructure system, and 18 projects promoting green and low-carbon transformation. Together, these three categories account for over 60% of all major projects.

From 102 major projects in the “14th Five-Year Plan” to 109 in the “Fifteen-Five” plan; from “leading new quality productivity development” to “building a modern infrastructure system”; from “promoting green and low-carbon transformation” to “cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries”… This substantial “blueprint” firmly anchors China’s development focus over the next five years on “new” initiatives, guiding the economy toward “new” growth and “green” development.

Enhancing the “New”

Among the 109 major projects, those leading new quality productivity development and building a modern infrastructure system rank first and third respectively, signaling China’s strong push toward “new” development. One goal is to cultivate a batch of emerging pillar industries with high growth potential, advanced technology, and broad penetration.

The “Fifteen-Five” plan specifically emphasizes cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries. It accelerates the development of strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, intelligent connected electric vehicles, robotics, biomedicine, high-end equipment, and aerospace; and proactively plans for future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and the sixth-generation mobile communication to become new drivers of economic growth.

Zhang Yu, Chief Economist at Huachuang Securities, told Shanghai Securities News that, according to the “Fifteen-Five” plan, there is an increase in major industrial projects, including a dedicated section for cultivating new industries and new tracks. This involves ten key areas: integrated circuits, embodied intelligence, biomanufacturing, new batteries, commercial aerospace, domestically produced large aircraft, low-altitude equipment, green hydrogen, brain-computer interfaces, and high-end medical devices, reflecting a firm commitment to innovation-driven development.

“Leading new quality productivity development and building a modern industrial system require better leveraging both the ‘market hand’ and the ‘government hand.’ Major projects are concrete measures,” said Zhang Yuzhe, Director of the High-Tech Industry Research Office at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). He emphasized that new industries support new momentum, and transforming potential into strength requires project support. These ten fields are crucial battlegrounds for future competition and cannot be optimally achieved solely through market mechanisms, necessitating a stronger role for government.

Zheng Shanjie, Director of the NDRC, stated at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress that, considering future development, China will promote a series of leading future industry projects during the “Fifteen-Five” period. These include large-scale projects in artificial intelligence, satellite internet, and controlled nuclear fusion, aiming to accelerate the growth of new industries, new productivity, new growth points, and new employment opportunities, striving for global leadership in more fields.

Hu Yongjun, Director of the Future Industry Department at the National Information Center under the NDRC, told Shanghai Securities News that during the “Fifteen-Five” period, China will see a batch of high-growth industries emerge, driving the industrial system from large to strong and from quantitative to qualitative change, becoming new engines for high-quality development.

Embracing “Intelligence”

“Artificial Intelligence” and “Digital Intelligence” are high-frequency terms in the “Fifteen-Five” plan, appearing 30 and 26 times respectively, and are key focus areas for major projects and initiatives.

In major frontier technology projects, artificial intelligence is listed as the top priority. The plan proposes developing high-performance AI chips and highly available foundational software stacks, accelerating exploration and innovation in model infrastructure, deepening research on explainable and decision-making algorithms, and strengthening AI data governance and security technology applications.

The plan also emphasizes the comprehensive implementation of the “AI+” initiative, integrating AI with technological innovation, industry development, cultural construction, public welfare, and social governance to seize high ground in AI industry applications and empower various sectors. It aims to accelerate breakthroughs in fundamental AI theories and core technologies, improve AI model architectures and algorithms, and promote collaborative innovation in “model-core-cloud-use.”

“Implementing the ‘AI+’ initiative comprehensively is highly significant. It not only empowers thousands of industries and captures industry application high ground but also carries the profound mission of transforming scientific research paradigms driven by AI,” said Lu Zhe, Chief Economist at Dongwu Securities and Co-Director of the Research Institute.

Digital intelligence is a vital component of new infrastructure projects. The “Fifteen-Five” plan makes specific arrangements for its development. Bai Jingyu, Director of the Innovation and High Technology Department at the NDRC, stated at a press briefing that “digital intelligence empowerment” is a key aspect, involving the efficient supply of computing power, algorithms, and data, and leveraging digital technology to advance China’s digital construction.

In terms of computing power, efforts will accelerate the construction of a nationwide integrated computing network, promoting scalable, centralized, green, and inclusive development; in algorithms, breakthroughs in fundamental AI theories and core technologies will be pursued, along with iterative innovation in models and algorithms; data development will be strengthened through improved data infrastructure and resource utilization; and in empowerment, the full implementation of the “AI+” initiative will enable deep transformation across industries and drive revolutionary productivity leaps.

Sun Suyu, Chief Analyst at Huayuan Securities’ Macroeconomic Group, told Shanghai Securities News that China’s economy will transition from “digitization” to “digital intelligence” during the “Fifteen-Five” period, with “AI+” as the core engine of digital intelligence, rapidly penetrating manufacturing, agriculture, and service industries.

Growing “Green”

The “Fifteen-Five” period is a critical phase for accelerating comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society, and for achieving carbon peak targets. Compared to the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the “Fifteen-Five” plan emphasizes “low-carbon” requirements more prominently, with 18 major projects focused on green and low-carbon development.

Additionally, “building a strong energy nation” is included in the first time in the national five-year plan, with accelerating the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system becoming a key focus of major projects.

The plan specifies seven major projects for constructing a new energy system: large hydropower and water-wind-solar integration bases; “Shagehuang” new energy bases; offshore wind power bases; coastal nuclear power; power transmission channels; interconnection projects; and natural gas pipelines. The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project exemplifies the water-hydropower-solar integration base, capable of providing about 300 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, directly replacing 90 million tons of standard coal.

During the “Fifteen-Five” period, the pace of energy “moving towards green and new” is expected to accelerate, with major energy projects helping to peak coal and oil consumption. At a press briefing, Chen Lei, Director of the Development Strategy and Planning Department at the NDRC, said that through projects like the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower, “Shagehuang” new energy bases, and power transmission channels, the capacity for transmitting electricity from west to east will reach over 420 million kW, and by 2030, non-fossil energy sources will account for 25% of total energy consumption.

Experts note that energy projects are a vital part of China’s strategic initiatives over the next five years. Investments in projects like the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower, “Shagehuang” new energy bases, and offshore wind farms will each exceed trillions of yuan. The advancement of these 109 major projects, including energy, will further solidify China’s economic foundation.