CITIC Securities: Inventory continues to be destocked, demand is gradually increasing, and lithium prices are easy to rise but hard to fall

People’s Financial News, March 19 — CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that according to SMM, domestic lithium carbonate inventories continue to decline, but the pace has slightly slowed. This week, inventories decreased by 414 tons, totaling less than 99,000 tons. Among them, smelter inventories fell by 1,184 tons to 16,000 tons, reaching the lowest level in nearly three years. Downstream inventories decreased by 1,890 tons to 46,000 tons, with estimated available inventory days less than 10. Other segment inventories declined by 1,120 tons to 37,000 tons, also at relatively low levels. On the supply side, weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 768 tons, but considering disruptions from Zimbabwe’s halted exports and port ore stock levels, future supply elasticity is expected to be limited. On the demand side, consumption continues to recover, with energy storage and heavy truck demand remaining strong. Power battery consumption is gradually entering peak season. Coupled with the Middle East war factors, overseas energy pressures are highlighted, and European household storage demand is rising. It is expected that in the next quarter, low inventory will remain the core contradiction, and lithium prices are more likely to rise than fall.