Global Tech Stock Investment Logic Shift: From "Beta Feast" to "Structural Gold Rush"

◎ Reporter Wang Peng

Since 2026, global tech stocks have experienced increased volatility, with major U.S. tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla generally declining. The Hang Seng Tech Index in Hong Kong has fluctuated, and several previously popular sectors in China’s A-shares have also seen adjustments.

At this point in time, many fund managers believe that as market expectations become saturated and concerns over capital expenditure rise, the core logic of tech stock investment has shifted—from a “sector-wide rally” to a “selective, structural gold rush” phase. Investment strategies need to adapt to the trend, focusing on core assets with proven performance and industry bottleneck positions.

Investment Challenges in 2026

Choice data shows that as of March 13, the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech Index have fallen 4.89% and 9.75%, respectively, this year. Specifically, among the seven major U.S. tech giants: Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, and Amazon have declined 18.02%, 7.91%, 13.01%, and 10.03% respectively since the start of the year. In Hong Kong, as of March 16, Tencent Holdings and Alibaba have fallen 6.76% and 6.16% year-to-date.

In China’s A-shares market, several previously high-flying tech sectors have also seen significant pullbacks. As of March 16, the Shenwan Electronics and Shenwan Computer indices have declined 4.58% and 5.94% since March.

Many fund managers admit that in 2026, investing in tech stocks across the U.S., Hong Kong, and China has become more challenging.

“During the first two years of AI rise, the investment logic was relatively simple—buy a few global tech giants and achieve significant returns. However, last year, these companies’ capital expenditures reached hundreds of billions of dollars, raising doubts in the market. If capital spending scales even higher this year, its impact on the U.S. economy cannot be ignored. Since summer 2025, the stock prices of these tech giants have not risen much, indicating they are now deeply tied to global capital expenditure and the U.S. macroeconomy,” says Di Xinghua, fund manager at Guohai Franklin.

Fidelity fund manager Zhang Xiaomu states that after years of growth, the valuation of U.S. tech stocks has fully reflected expectations. Therefore, in 2026, it will be difficult to drive stock prices through valuation alone. U.S. tech stocks are entering a “performance-driven” phase.

Regarding the A-share and Hong Kong markets, Zhang Xiaomu notes that by 2026, market expectations for the overseas computing power chain in China have already been high. Although related suppliers may continue to see high performance growth, sustaining above-expectation results will be more difficult. While there is still some upside potential, overall volatility is expected to increase.

In Zhang’s view, the performance of Hong Kong internet giants stabilized and rebounded at the bottom in 2025, but the main driver of valuation increases remains the market’s high attention to AI investments. This year, investors are more focused on the commercialization progress of AI and the actual returns it generates. Relying solely on increased capital expenditure plans will no longer support valuation growth. Given that AI typically requires a long cycle from investment to returns, stocks related to AI are likely to face greater volatility in 2026.

Tech Sector Continues to Attract Capital

Despite increased volatility, large amounts of capital continue to flow into the tech sector.

A Goldman Sachs report shows that from February 27 to March 5, the tech sector was the most net-bought industry globally, mainly driven by U.S. tech stocks, with the buying almost entirely due to risk unwinding and short covering.

French bank Societe Generale’s U.S. equity strategy head Manish Cabrera explains that in the current environment, tech stocks have defensive characteristics because, unlike energy-intensive industries, their performance is hardly affected by energy price fluctuations.

“Amid high uncertainty, with inflation and global economic growth prospects becoming more unpredictable, major global tech giants still maintain growth momentum and stable cash flows,” says Michael Walsh, multi-asset portfolio manager at Pru Life.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong tech-related ETFs continue to attract capital. Choice data shows that as of March 13, the Huatai-PineBridge South East Asia Hang Seng Tech ETF increased its holdings by 4.269 billion shares since March, with an average transaction price of 0.63 yuan, netting a total inflow of 2.68 billion yuan, ranking first among cross-border ETFs. Followed by China Asset Management’s Hang Seng Tech Index ETF and E Fund’s Hang Seng Tech ETF, which received net inflows of 1.813 billion yuan and 1.123 billion yuan respectively.

Everbright Securities reports that Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to liquidity flows, often showing greater resilience during periods of rising global risk appetite. As the AI industry’s growth prospects are re-evaluated, capital tends to flow first into globally competitive internet and tech leaders, which are concentrated in the Hong Kong market. Therefore, during the reinforcement of AI industry logic and capital return phases, Hong Kong tech stocks generally exhibit greater elasticity than other markets.

Hua Xia Fund notes that as of March 9, the Hang Seng Index’s P/E ratio was only 12 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index’s P/E had fallen to 20 times—both at historically low levels. The current attractive valuation levels in Hong Kong stocks also make them appealing to southbound funds.

Exploring Investment Opportunities in Tech Sub-sectors

At this point, many fund managers believe that relying on overall industry beta trends to generate returns is becoming less effective. Future opportunities will increasingly depend on in-depth exploration of specific sub-sectors.

“AI investment logic has shifted from chasing concepts to focusing on certainty. Targets with strong moat, reasonable valuation, and higher performance certainty will show greater resilience,” says Di Xinghua.

Li Changfeng, head of market strategy at Lianbog Fund, believes AI will bring significant changes to business models, consumer behavior, and daily life, creating numerous investment opportunities. Since 2023, AI-themed stocks have already seen substantial gains. Therefore, instead of simply doubling down on the theme, a more prudent approach now is bottom-up research to identify potential beneficiaries.

Sheng Jin, portfolio director at Harvest Group, states that the core investment logic this year remains centered on the most scarce “bottleneck” segments within AI infrastructure:

First, upstream wafer manufacturing. Whether global leading companies or other critical manufacturing links, their strategic importance and value remain prominent.

Second, chip design companies. Some targets are outperforming market expectations, with faster technological iteration and commercialization.

Finally, memory chips, especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM). As some international giants shift large capacities to HBM, supply of traditional NAND flash has tightened, causing prices to rise significantly. This has improved the fundamentals of excellent domestic memory companies. More importantly, when demand for specialized storage like HBM explodes, the entire storage industry’s prosperity begins to spread, including the prices of small, dedicated chips used in robotics and edge devices, fostering positive industry development.