Andysul Surges Over 7%, Consumer Discretionary Becomes Safe Haven Sector! Consumer ETF Gains Four Consecutive Days Against the Market, Receives 18 Million Share Net Subscriptions for the Day! Institutions: 2026 Will Be a Key Year for Establishing the Turning Point in Consumer Prosperity

Today (3/13), A-shares fluctuated lower, with technology-related stocks all adjusting. Consumer stocks rebounded against the trend, with the leading consumer ETF (159928) closing up 0.26%, marking four consecutive days of gains! The total daily trading volume exceeded 360 million yuan! In terms of funds, there was a net subscription of 18 million units throughout the day! The latest size of the Consumer ETF exceeds 21.9 billion yuan, continuing to lead among peers! Among popular constituent stocks, Andy Su surged over 7%, Golden Dragon Fish rose over 3%, Luzhou Laojiao increased over 2%, Kweichou Moutai gained over 1%, and Wuliangye saw a slight rise. (Constituent stocks are for display only, not stock recommendations)

On the international front, geopolitical disturbances persist, with international oil prices rising again, Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel. The U.S. plans to suspend the implementation of the Jones Act to stabilize oil prices. On Thursday, U.S. stocks plunged significantly. Additionally, the U.S. will initiate new trade investigations against 16 trading partners.

Market outlooks from various institutions indicate that many held spring strategy meetings for 2026 recently. Generally, they believe that the market will shift from liquidity-driven to profit-driven in 2026, with “tech growth + cyclical sectors” as the core theme for the year. High-dividend and consumer sectors can serve as stable core holdings, while structural opportunities will be key for investment.

Hong Kong stocks focused on genuine new consumption. The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxinfu (159268) closed down 0.44%, with a weak three-day losing streak. The total trading volume was over 47 million HKD, nearly 30% higher than yesterday! Net subscriptions reached 13 million units, marking the second consecutive day of net inflow! By the close, most popular constituent stocks declined; Haidilao fell over 4%, Lao Pao Gold dropped over 3%, Anta Sports down over 2%, while Pop Mart and Nongfu Spring saw slight declines. (Constituent stocks are for display only, not stock recommendations)

【Institutional View: 2026 Will Be a Key Year for the Turnaround in Consumer Industry Prosperity】

CITIC Securities believes that the current consumer market is at a critical window of weak recovery and policy expectations. Based on marginal improvements in macro data and verification from micro high-frequency data, they judge that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the consumer industry’s turning point. Due to the still-weak macro environment, the self-repair of consumer prosperity is expected to take time. In the short term, opportunities related to fiscal stimulus policies can be focused on. Currently, consumer investment should adopt a conservative yet innovative approach—building on high dividends and resilient growth consumption: one side leveraging service consumption and policy flexibility; the other constructing defensive core holdings with high dividends, while closely monitoring CPI turning positive, which could bring opportunities in catering supply chains, dairy products, and other sectors with rising prices and volumes. Long-term allocation should continue to emphasize changes in consumption structure.

CITIC Securities emphasizes paying attention to the triple resonance of policy cost reduction, increased resident demand, and market capital inflows. Cost reduction policies to boost domestic demand are clear drivers of economic growth. Since early 2026, China’s key policies to promote consumption focus on extending and optimizing subsidies for old-for-new upgrades of automobiles, home appliances, and other durable goods, coupled with more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to stabilize employment and household income. Marginally, policy focus is gradually shifting toward cultural tourism, leisure, and elderly care services, indicating a structural and medium-to-long-term policy orientation to enhance internal demand. After nearly three years of adjustment, China’s consumer demand has gradually shown signs of bottoming out. Although overall still weak, structural growth is emerging in service, high-end, and spiritual consumption sectors. The low base in 2025 under the liquor restriction background provides a good foundation for the recovery of consumption data in Q2 2026. Meanwhile, consumer holdings remain at historic lows, and any marginal improvement in prosperity is likely to trigger a rebound. It is recommended to increase allocation to consumption, focusing on “pre-recovery” opportunities—both on the side of recovering prosperity and maintaining dividends, with a balanced approach awaiting a rebound.

The main focus areas are:

1. Service consumption is expected to succeed durable goods as a new policy focus.

The old-for-new policy continues into 2026, but given the diminishing marginal effect of durable goods subsidies, fiscal support is likely to tilt toward service consumption. Under proper policy guidance, China has the capacity to expand service consumption. Demand-side measures include improving social security to activate savings, ensuring rest rights to avoid leisure crowding, and increasing income share to stabilize expectations; supply-side efforts involve capacity expansion, quality improvement, and developing niche industries to foster new growth points, building a strong market economy to unleash industrial vitality. Under expectations of “service consumption re-lending expansion” and tourism vouchers, experiential consumption such as hotels, catering, cultural tourism, and transportation are expected to see traffic and performance recovery.

2. High-end consumption—initial signs of wealth effect transmission, seeking certainty amid divergence.

In Q3 2025, some core high-end sectors—luxury goods, high-end beauty, air travel, and high-end residential markets in key cities—performed better than market expectations. China’s consumer market shows a clear “K-shaped recovery,” with a stark divergence between the rebound of certain consumption sectors and the moderate recovery of mass consumption. This pattern is driven by rigid supply-side constraints, wealth effects among high-net-worth groups, and marginal policy improvements. Key areas include high-end consumption benefiting from wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization, such as luxury goods, high-end beauty, premium real estate, outbound travel, gambling, and duty-free sectors.

3. Pay close attention to price transmission opportunities.

In 2026, China may face significant imported inflation pressures, mainly driven by non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum) and crude oil, due to global “de-dollarization,” AI infrastructure investments, and tariff-related stockpiling effects. Optimistically, PPI year-over-year may turn positive by May 2026. Focus on input-driven inflation pushing up fertilizer and feed costs, which will transmit to agricultural product prices (CPI). The catering supply chain sector may experience a “Davis double play” due to inventory revaluation and substitution effects: leading companies can leverage low-cost inventories for short-term gross margin expansion; meanwhile, inflation pressures will prompt downstream restaurants to cut labor costs and accelerate procurement of standardized semi-finished products, increasing supply chain penetration.

4. Deposit interest rates continue to decline, embracing certainty and free cash flow amid an “asset shortage.”

In the macro environment of low interest rates and “asset scarcity” in 2026, most sub-sectors of the consumer industry remain in a “wait-and-see” state. The core logic of high-dividend consumer stocks is shifting from pursuit of high growth to embracing “certainty premium” and “free cash flow.” Coupled with sustained long-term capital inflows and policy-driven market value management of state-owned enterprises, such assets are scarce and offer both defensive and yield advantages.

(Source: CITIC Securities 20260313 “Staying true and innovating, the way forward: Strategies for the consumer recovery ‘prelude’”)

The Consumer ETF (159928), as a representative of essential and domestic demand sectors within the consumer industry, demonstrates strong resilience across economic cycles. The top ten constituent stocks account for over 67.57%, including four leading liquor companies (31%), major pig breeders (16%), and others like Yili (9%), Haitan Flavor (4%), Dongpeng Beverage (4%), and Haida Group (3%). (Data as of 2025/3/6) Focus on the consumer sector, with related product ETFs (159928), and off-exchange links (A: 000248; C: 012857).

One-click to position in new consumption, choose the more “pure” Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxinfu (159268)! Trendy toys, jewelry, beauty—emotional consumption at your fingertips, ready to capture the next LABUBU wave! The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF Huaxinfu (159268) also supports T+0 trading and does not occupy QDII quotas, making it a more efficient and convenient way to invest in Hong Kong consumer stocks, painting a new blueprint for Generation Z’s consumption.

Data: as of 2026/1/30

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