Hexun Investment Advisor Xu Xin: March 19 Afternoon Forecast

This morning, the market showed a gap-down opening followed by a consolidation pattern. During the session, two doji stars appeared. After opening, the index found support near the support level, and sentiment immediately hit a freezing point, followed by a technical rebound. However, the rebound was generally weak, mainly because two major negative factors from last night are still unfolding.

First, the Federal Reserve signaled a hawkish stance, indicating no consideration of interest rate cuts in the short term, and possibly reconsidering rate hikes due to inflation and rising oil prices. This statement triggered a broad market adjustment. Second, energy facilities were attacked again, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which increased risk aversion in the market and suppressed A-shares. After two hours of digestion this morning, these negative factors have been largely reflected in the market.

From a technical perspective, the appearance of two consecutive doji stars indicates resistance at the current level. The likelihood of a further sharp decline in the index is low. The market is likely to remain volatile or experience a weak rebound after hitting a bottom in the afternoon. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index today is at the seventh day of its daily sequence; tomorrow it will enter the eighth. Based on the time window, the turning point may occur on Friday. The average stock price index has broken below the 60-day moving average. For the market to regain strength, it must rise back above this average. Until then, patience is advised, and rushing into the market is not recommended.

In terms of sectors, the computing power and data center sectors still performed relatively strongly amid today’s overall adjustment, showing some resilience and worth monitoring continuously.

Overall, the market is expected to stabilize gradually after digesting negative news in the afternoon, but the true turning point for a rebound still requires confirmation from technical signals.

(Edited by: Zhang Yan)

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