Is $60,000 the bottom of this bear market?

(Subtext: Damn, I haven't gotten in yet......）
This is the most frequently asked question I've received recently. In my view, 60k BTC could indeed be the bottom; but! The 60k in February is probably not the bottom." Doesn't that sound contradictory?

We know that bottoms aren't "waited for," they're "bought." So when BTC pulls back to a certain level and consolidates continuously, we only need to see if there's "hot supply" (corresponding to concentrated, intense buying pressure).

If it appears and the price subsequently rebounds afterward, then we can express high skepticism about it.

Of course, some pullback continuations will also attract buying orders, so there's a certain amount of "hot supply." Therefore, the logic here is: "having it" doesn't necessarily mean it is, but "not having it" probably means it isn't.

I've circled this segment from February this year in the chart—isn't the "hot supply" very weak? That indicates there's no concentrated surge in demand here. If you compare it to that segment in January 2023, you can see the difference (as shown in the chart).

This is an important reason "why I believe February's 60k is probably not the bottom."

But 60k BTC has indeed attracted some major capital, and it's not ruled out that when BTC returns to that range next time, massive demand could emerge.

If it does, then during that time period, "BTC at 60k" could potentially be the bottom.

Actually, at this point, whether it's 60k or 50k, the specific number no longer matters; the key is to see concentrated demand emerge. Price rebounds formed merely by weakening selling pressure might hold up for a while but won't last.

So the viewpoint expressed at the beginning of this article isn't contradictory; I should have made this logic clear, right?

If you still don't understand, I can only suggest you go back and review elementary Chinese textbooks volumes 1-3—it's very dangerous to run around naked in crypto without a "talisman"🤣🤣🤣$BTC $BTC