China First Futures: Crude Oil Market Sentiment Reverses, Domestic Vegetable Oil Market Pulls Back Significantly

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-19T05:15:58+00:00

Today's domestic oil and fat market experienced a significant pullback, retracing yesterday's gains, due to the roller-coaster-like volatile swings in international crude oil. Middle East war concerns and crude oil supply disruption worries have eased somewhat, as Trump stated the war will end soon, and major economies have signaled intentions to release strategic reserves. Impacted by international crude oil prices falling more than $30 from their highs, both international and domestic oil and fat markets showed notable pullbacks. Overnight U.S. soybean oil turned negative intraday, declining 0.60%, while the Malaysian market fell 2.39% in the morning session. Additionally, MPOB data from noon was bearish, with February inventory at 2.77 million tons, higher than the estimated 2.63 million tons. Overall, today's domestic oil and fat market came under pressure and declined, with palm oil futures at one point dropping over 3%, while soybean oil and canola oil futures fell over 2%. Generally speaking, volatile sentiment surrounding Middle East issues has caused crude oil prices to swing wildly, disturbing fund sentiment in the domestic oil and fat market. However, the substantive supply constraints on international crude oil remain in the short term, and post-crude rally expectations for improved international oil and fat biodiesel consumption are still ongoing. If crude oil prices remain within the 80-100 U.S. dollars range, high

K-LinePoet

2026-03-19 05:15:58

Today, domestic oilseed prices experienced a sharp decline, giving back yesterday’s gains due to the rollercoaster fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Concerns over Middle East conflicts and oil supply disruptions have eased, as Trump stated the war will end soon and major economies are releasing reserves. Influenced by the significant drop of over $30 from the high point in crude oil prices, both international and domestic oilseed markets saw a notable correction. Overnight, U.S. soybean oil turned to a decline of 0.60%, and Malaysian palm oil fell by 2.39% in the morning. Additionally, the midday MPOB data was bearish, with February stocks at 2.7 million tons, higher than the estimated 2.63 million tons. Overall, domestic oilseed prices faced downward pressure today, with palm oil futures dropping over 3% at one point, and soybean and rapeseed oil futures falling over 2%. In general, the fluctuating Middle East tensions caused significant volatility in crude oil prices, which disturbed domestic oilseed market sentiment. However, the actual restriction on international crude oil supply remains in place in the short term, and the expectation of improved international oilseed consumption following the sharp rise in crude oil prices continues. If crude oil prices stabilize between $80 and $100, there will still be clear bullish support for the oilseed and oil market. In terms of trading strategy, it is not recommended to short; after a stable correction, a bullish or wide-range oscillation approach is preferred. (First Capital Futures)

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