Caixin Survey | Consumption growth may accelerate in January-February; industrial and export growth may slow slightly

[Caixin] Due to the long Spring Festival holiday and reduced working days, the growth rate of industrial production from January to February may slow down. The replacement of old products supports categories that boost consumption again. Investment growth remains negative, but exports remain resilient.

A recent survey by Caixin Media of 13 domestic and international institutions shows that, on the production side, economists’ average forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in January and February is 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The median is 5.0%, with a survey range of 4.5% to 6.9%, compared to a previous value of 5.2%. Three institutions’ forecasts are higher than the previous value.

Zhang Yu, Chief Economist at Huachuang Securities, expects the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in January and February to be around 5.5%. On one hand, freight transportation is strong. As of March 1, the total year-on-year increase in highway freight volume was 5.6%, compared to 5.1% in the same period in 2025. Combined with export data, it is expected that exports will drive strong freight growth, and early-year production is not weak. However, due to adjustments in subsidy policies, automobile production may be somewhat weak.