US Interest Rate Trend | Charles Schwab: Middle East Conflict Uncertain, Short-term Rate Cuts Unlikely to Materialize

SighingCashier · 2026-03-19T04:44:01+00:00

Lin Chang-jie pointed out that the deteriorating situation in Iran, coupled with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged, has led market forecasts to push back the first rate cut to summer next year. Rising energy prices from Middle East tensions are driving up inflation expectations, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in the short term. Markets will closely monitor energy trends.

SighingCashier

2026-03-19 04:44:01

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Charles Schwab Hong Kong Senior Vice President and Financial Advisor Lin Cheung-kit stated that the situation in Iran continues to escalate, with no signs of easing. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% was as expected. The market has now delayed the first rate cut from the originally anticipated two cuts this year to summer next year. The key factor prompting this reassessment is the surge in energy prices caused by tense Middle East tensions, prompting investors to reevaluate inflation prospects.

He said that the chances of a rate cut in the short term have decreased, which is contrary to U.S. President Trump’s calls for lowering borrowing costs for families and businesses, reflecting that inflation driven by energy remains a real risk. The market is closely watching energy market trends, as U.S. consumers are facing significant increases in fuel prices. Before the Middle East conflict becomes clearer, a rate cut in the short term will be difficult to achieve.

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