"Energy War" Escalates! Israeli Military Bombs Iran's Largest Gas Field, Behind Oil Price Surge: Has Israel Completely "Controlled" Trump?

Israel’s unprecedented bombing of Iran’s core natural gas fields has not only instantly triggered supply disruption fears in the crude oil market but also caused the market to reevaluate the true power structure within the US-Israel alliance amid the current Middle East upheaval—who is really in control?

The incident began with the attack on the South Pars gas field. On Wednesday, March 18, local time, the energy red line in Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts was substantially crossed. According to CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces attacked facilities related to the South Pars gas field in Busher Province, southern Iran.

CCTV quoted Israeli officials as saying that the facility processed about 40% of Iran’s natural gas, and the attack was carried out “in coordination with the United States.” This marks the first direct military strike on Iran’s upstream oil and gas assets since the outbreak of this round of conflict.

In response to the attack, Xinhua News Agency reported that Iran’s National Gas Company issued a statement on the 18th confirming that facilities related to the South Pars gas field were attacked by hostile forces, causing a fire. However, the statement also objectively emphasized that there were no casualties, the fire has been fully extinguished, and under safety assurances, natural gas production continues, maintaining normal national energy supply.

The market’s reaction was extremely intense. Brent crude oil surged over 6% intraday, approaching the $110 per barrel mark.

Energy War: Why Is This Bombing So Dangerous?

Before exploring the behind-the-scenes game between the US and Israel, it is essential to clarify a core fact: South Pars is not only Iran’s trump card but also the “Achilles’ heel” of the global energy market.

South Pars is currently the world’s largest known natural gas reserve, shared by Iran and Qatar. It is not only the foundation for Iran’s domestic power generation, industrial raw materials, and winter heating but also a vital energy source for countries like Turkey.

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Financial, pointed out sharply: “If millions of barrels of production capacity are destroyed, the impact will be enormous because it means that even after the war ends, inventories cannot be replenished.”

To illustrate, past attacks on oil tankers or blockades of straits were like clogging a water pipe—once cleared, water could still flow. But this time, directly bombing upstream gas fields and LNG facilities is akin to destroying the “water well” itself.

Once the “water well” is destroyed, it takes years to repair. Historical experience after the Iraq War in 2003 shows that despite ample funding, rebuilding energy production facilities often takes much longer than expected, directly increasing long-term risks and premiums on energy supply.

In the face of the destruction of upstream core assets, Iran’s retaliatory actions have triggered chain reactions.

According to CCTV News, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander Tansiri warned that Iran now treats US-related oil facilities and US military bases equally and will strike with full force. Iran even issued a “strike list” including key refineries and gas fields in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Iraq’s power supply has been immediately severely impacted—due to Iran’s natural gas cutoff, Iraq has lost over 3.1 gigawatts (GW) of power generation capacity.

Umud Shokri, a senior visiting scholar at George Mason University, analyzed that shifting targets from military facilities to core energy production areas signifies that the geopolitical conflict has officially evolved into an economic and energy consumption war. Israel is attempting to pressure Iran by attacking its economic core, but this strategy makes interconnected energy systems extremely fragile.

Who is giving orders? Is Israel completely “controlling” Trump?

This is the deepest logic that market and investors are most concerned about in this event. If the bombing of energy facilities is the “surface,” then the power structure behind the US and Israel is the “core.”

Who is leading the situation in this attack?

According to CCTV News citing US officials, former President Trump was informed in advance of Israel’s plan to attack South Pars and expressed support, aiming to send a message to Iran to “respond to its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.”

US officials also revealed that Trump believed “Iran has understood this message,” and therefore he currently opposes further attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Trump stated he “does not want further attacks on Iran’s energy facilities.”

However, the story quickly took a highly dramatic turn. According to the latest Xinhua report, President Trump publicly declared on social media on the 18th that the US was “not aware” of Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil and gas facilities, and emphasized that Qatar was not involved in any way.

Trump said Israel would not launch any more attacks on the “extremely important and valuable” South Pars gas field unless Iran decided to attack the “completely innocent” Qatar. He also threatened that if Iran attacked Qatar’s liquefied natural gas facilities again, the US would “use unprecedented force to completely destroy the entire South Pars gas field.”

This public statement sharply conflicts with the earlier “anonymous US officials” report claiming Trump was informed and supported the attack. Is it the US officials lying, or is Trump trying to distance himself from responsibility?

This huge policy uncertainty, along with the serious disconnect in high-level US statements, is the source of market panic. On overseas social media, financial opinion leaders (KOLs), geopolitical observers, and netizens have erupted in heated debates over “who is really controlling whom” between the US and Israel.

Hypothesis 1: The tail wagging the dog—Has the US been “reversed-controlled” by Israel?

Many analysts believe that Trump’s “not aware” statement actually indicates that Washington has lost control of the situation and has become a passive payer.

• Javier Blas, a Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist, said: "There are two possibilities for the attack on South Pars today: 1) Israel informed the US, and Washington either tacitly approved or did not oppose; (which is) very bad; 2) Israel informed the US, and Washington failed to persuade its war partners to stop the attack: this is extremely, extremely bad. Who will decide to escalate: the US or Israel?"

• Waqas Inayat, a well-known KOL, bluntly said: “We are witnessing a ‘very, very bad’ script. If Washington has lost its chips with its ‘primary partner’ (Israel), we are entering an unpredictable, rogue escalation phase. The global energy market is now being driven by a ‘tail wagging the dog.’”**

• User Ammanichanda added: “Israel has unimaginable influence over the US; they can do whatever they want. This is not an exaggeration.”**

• Netizen Markk also believes: “At this stage, I am almost completely convinced that US foreign policy has been hijacked by Israel.”**

From a market perspective, if Israel is an unrestrained “wild horse” not controlled by the US, then Trump’s statement that he “does not want further attacks” is completely untrustworthy, and the risk of chain destruction of Middle Eastern energy facilities is fully priced in.

Hypothesis 2: Highly intertwined interests—Is Israel just the US’s “bad cop”?

Another view suggests that we should not be fooled by appearances; the US remains the ultimate puppeteer behind the scenes.

• QuantCappers, a KOL, presented core data to counter: “Israel is a vassal of the US. The US provides Israel with $4 billion annually in military aid, accounting for 10% of its total military budget. Those who control the purse strings (funds) hold the power."”

• User Ant-i’s analysis is very insightful: “It’s the tail wagging the dog, not the other way around. In this situation, the ‘tail’ (Israel) becomes a convenient scapegoat. This way, the US can act without restrictions and shift external anger.”**

• User EndGame2030 also posed a profound question: “Does Washington want us to doubt Israel, but is that true? Is Israel just a ‘bad cop’ doing dirty work for the moneybags?”**

Hypothesis 3: A carefully orchestrated political and market double act?

Some analysts believe this attack was a highly precise “political bargaining” move.

Shashank Joshi, an analyst, cited a report from Israel’s Channel 12: “An Israeli senior official said that Israel’s assistance in the operation was to convey a message from the US. ‘Either… the Strait of Hormuz is opened, mines are cleared… or the entire (gas) infrastructure will be destroyed, along with other facilities.’”

This explains Trump’s attitude: the attack on the gas field is not meant for destruction but for maximum pressure. If Iran cooperates and opens the Strait of Hormuz, the energy war ends; if Iran continues its hardline stance, Trump may signal green light again at any time.

In summary, the bombing of South Pars has driven oil prices close to $110 per barrel, not only because of the daily risk of millions of barrels of oil and gas supply being cut off but also because the market sees the “energy war” as a normalized, bottomless game.

Whether the US is behind the scenes pulling strings or Israel “controls” US decisions, the result points to the same fact: the dense energy network in the Persian Gulf has become a Damocles sword hanging over the global economy. As long as this fragile nerve remains tense, super volatility in energy markets will persist long-term.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks exist; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at their own risk.