Zhang Yao Xi: Powell Arrives with Decision, Gold Price Expected to Maintain Range-Bound Adjustment Awaiting Rebound

Zhang Yaoxi: Powell brings decision to the table, gold prices expected to remain volatile with adjustments before rebounding
On the previous trading day, Tuesday (March 17): International gold continued to fluctuate and close, despite unresolved geopolitical tensions. Iran’s first attack on upstream oil and gas facilities in the UAE and other major oil prices strengthened, limiting gold’s rebound. However, markets are still oscillating around the $5,000 mark as they await this week’s Federal Reserve decision and future policy outlook. Given the current lack of sustained bearish pressure, technical patterns suggest a bottoming and bullish outlook. If prices fall further, support levels at the 60-day moving average should be watched, and a continued bullish rebound is possible.
In terms of specific movement, gold opened at $5006.99 per ounce in the Asian session, rebounded initially, reaching an intraday high of $5044.02 at midday, then faced resistance and declined, continuing to fluctuate lower. After hitting an intraday low of $4973.89 at 11:30 p.m. U.S. time, it bottomed out and rebounded, trading within a narrow range above $4997, finally closing at $5005.48. The daily range was $70.13, down $1.51, a 0.03% decline.

Outlook for Wednesday (March 18): International gold will open with narrow fluctuations, as markets continue to wait for the Fed’s rate decision and economic outlook summary at 2 a.m. U.S. time, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for further guidance.
Market expectations currently hold rates steady. “Fed mouthpiece”: The Fed is inclined to remain silent this week, so the trend is expected to continue oscillating.
However, after the oscillation and adjustment, gold prices are still expected to rise because, whether reviewing history—comparing gold’s response after oil prices surged—or interpreting the current environment, gold is ultimately poised for an upward trend.
Historical comparisons are well known, repeatedly explained before. Although Iran remains firm and the U.S. will not show weakness, risks will persist. The core issue remains the Strait of Hormuz; as long as oil issues are resolved, pressure on gold prices will ease.
According to White House economic advisor Hassett: Oil tankers are beginning to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran’s conflict is expected to last weeks rather than months. The U.S. plans to relax sanctions on Venezuela to address rising oil prices. Iraq has resumed oil exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan port since Wednesday; additionally, Iraq is negotiating with Iran to allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, among other measures, which has already limited the rebound of oil prices.

Therefore, looking ahead, conflicts and inflation caused by oil prices are likely to remain deadlocked but unlikely to intensify further. Gold prices will gradually adjust, waiting for the return of rate cut expectations, central bank buying, de-dollarization concerns, and economic worries to trigger another rise.
On the technical side, at the monthly level, gold has shown weakness this month but remains above the 5-month moving average and above the upward trendline broken in January, indicating a still favorable bullish outlook. If prices continue to fall this month, support levels at the May (4800) or October (4400) moving averages can be seen as potential bullish entry points.
Conversely, if prices break below the trendline support and close below 4300, it would signal the end of the bull market, with further declines possibly to $3,500 or even lower.
On the daily chart, gold has formed two consecutive days of oscillating doji reversal patterns, indicating potential bullish reversal. The ZZ indicator also shows a bottoming after a decline, suggesting a rebound back toward $5200 or $5400. However, current prices are still below the midline and other moving averages, with the accompanying indicators remaining bearish, implying short-term risks of further decline. Medium-term traders may consider buying on dips with support at the 60-day moving average. Short-term traders should focus on intraday signals for bullish or bearish momentum.

Gold: Support levels at $4,970 or around $4,955; resistance at $5,020/$5,050 and near $5,080.
Silver: Support at $78.40 or around $77.20; resistance at $82.00 or $83.20.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
For every $1 fluctuation in international gold, Gold TD fluctuates approximately by 0.25 yuan (theoretically).
U.S. futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × days to expiry / 365)
Follow me to make your gold trading ideas clearer!
Reviewing historical cause and effect, interpreting current environments, and forecasting future trends—adopting bold predictions with cautious trading principles. – Zhang Yaoxi
The above opinions and analysis represent only the author’s personal views and are for reference only. Do not base trading decisions solely on them. Trading involves risk; profit and loss are your own responsibility.
You decide your own money.