March 19 Thursday Midday Market Analysis

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early this morning kept the benchmark rate unchanged, maintaining the rate corridor at 3.5%-3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The main focus is that the latest dot plot still only anticipates one rate cut this year, while inflation forecasts have been raised, indicating that the Fed remains highly alert to rising energy prices, geopolitical risks, and the persistent nature of U.S. inflation.

Powell's speech was generally neutral with a slight hawkish tilt. He did not specify a clear timeframe for rate cuts but repeatedly emphasized that "more data is needed to confirm," especially noting that recent oil price increases could push inflation higher again. This suggests that short-term liquidity easing expectations have been suppressed. Although markets had hoped for more dovish signals, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened after the speech, signaling a clear cooling of risk appetite.

For the crypto market, this stance of "holding steady but not rushing to loosen" will likely keep Bitcoin and Ethereum under short-term pressure. Bitcoin experienced a pullback after the announcement, indicating that profit-taking by large holders has begun, and short-term price movements are likely to fluctuate within a range driven by sentiment. Ethereum, with higher volatility, generally faces stronger selling pressure than Bitcoin. If the market cannot quickly recover key resistance levels, the likely pattern will be a shakeout followed by a directional move. However, as long as the rate cut expectations are not completely shattered, there remains potential for capital to flow back after dips in the medium term.

BTC Trading Suggestion: Range-bound between 70,700 and 71,500, with strategies of selling high and buying low

ETH Trading Suggestion: Range-bound between 2,160 and 2,230, with strategies of selling high and buying low