Qin Shi Jin Sheng: Real-time Gold Price Chart Analysis, Gold Market Trend Analysis, and Trading Recommendations

On March 13, Friday, gold prices continued to decline. After falling for two consecutive days, spot gold dropped below $5,105 per ounce. However, from a weekly perspective, gold prices could still fall about 1%. If this happens, it would be the first time since November last year that gold has declined for two consecutive weeks. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel and Iran conflict nearly two weeks ago, the upward momentum of gold has stalled, with no signs of resolution in the short term.

News Analysis: Ongoing conflict has weakened investor interest in gold, leading to choppy trading that replaces the long-term upward trend. Investors are selling gold to cover margins in other parts of their portfolios. Nevertheless, gold prices are still up about 18% this year and remain mostly above $5,000 per ounce. If the conflict persists—and oil prices stay high—this could put further pressure on gold. As the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, PCE, shows stronger-than-expected January data, it would further confirm inflationary pressures driven by oil prices, reinforce the consensus for a rate cut in September, and support the dollar. Conversely, if the data is moderate, safe-haven buying in gold may lead to a rebound. If tensions in the Middle East (such as the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed) continue, the safe-haven properties of precious metals will provide support at the lower end, but overall, the market will still be dominated by the dollar and inflation expectations.

Technical Analysis of Gold: Previously, we predicted that gold would rely on the key support at 5101 and the dividing line at 5195 to continue its medium-term bullish trend. However, based on current real-time market movements, this forecast needs to be revised: yesterday’s analysis noted that 5195 was not broken, but gold prices continued to fall, breaking below the key support at 5101. We reanalyze the trend: since peaking at 5238.54, gold has been in a sustained downtrend. The acceleration of decline during yesterday’s US session led to a technical bearish alignment, confirming the continuation of the correction. The main reason is insufficient buying interest combined with profit-taking, and the downtrend is now clear with no reversal signals.

On the hourly chart, after breaking below 5101, gold failed to rebound effectively. The price formed a series of lower lows and lower highs, with moving averages in a bearish alignment. Although the downward momentum has slightly weakened, there are no signs of stabilization, so the best strategy remains to stay bearish. After today’s opening, gold rose but did not surpass yesterday’s high at 5125, which can serve as a short-term resistance. Support is at the 5055 low from yesterday. My personal view is that today’s gold price may temporarily dip below 5055 to trigger a false breakout before rising again, but watch whether bullish forces can break through 5125 during the session. The overall pattern may be a slow decline, followed by a rebound, then another decline.

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Editor: Chen Ping