Middle East Tensions Disrupt Fed's Future Rate Cut Path

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At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on March 19, 2026, the Federal Reserve announced the results of the March 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: the meeting voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, which was widely expected by the market. The dissenting vote was cast by Stephen I. Miran, who favored a 25 basis point rate cut. The statement emphasized that the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. Following the meeting, U.S. stocks plummeted, gold prices dropped sharply, U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar index increased, and international oil prices surged.

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