Currently, there are two relatively important fundamentals at play. One is the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, and the other is Powell's more hawkish rhetoric. Let me start with the conflict. Although the IEA released oil to lower prices, Iran is preparing to escalate the war. The market is quite concerned about the impact on industry and energy, causing oil prices to rise again. Currently, WTI crude is back at $99, and it could easily breach $100 tomorrow. Although Powell didn't explicitly mention oil prices' impact, he did acknowledge that rising oil prices could push up inflation. While this is already within the Fed's expectations, investors are still quite frustrated. Iran's resilience may have exceeded Trump's expectations. Although Trump keeps saying the war will end soon, there's still no sign of it ending, let alone regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Powell ruled out near-term rate hikes, he essentially affirmed market expectations of possibly one rate cut within the year. He even believes that AI has increased data center demand and elevated inflation, creating another reason why there won't be rate cuts in the near term. Additionally, there's the tariff issue, and he actually views the war's impact as likely temporary. The real focus will be on the second half of the year. The first half is truly a painful period.

Looking at BTC data, under the dual pressure of oil prices and Powell's remarks today, BTC's price still experienced downward oscillation, which is quite interesting. Those who were talking about bull markets yesterday are now saying bear markets have arrived. In reality, the main narrative remains the volatile action caused by the war. When the war escalates and oil rises, the market becomes sluggish; conversely, the market regains some vitality.