Hormuz Strait Continues to Stall, Middle East Oil Exports Plunge 61%-71%

The Iran-U.S. conflict has led to a substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing the world’s most critical oil transportation artery to remain blocked. This unprecedented supply shock has pushed crude oil exports from the Middle East to their lowest levels in history, reshaping the global energy market landscape.

According to data from ship tracking agency Kpler and calculations by Reuters, last week, the combined daily exports of crude oil, condensates, and refined products from eight countries—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE—fell to 9.71 million barrels, a 61% drop from the 25.13 million barrels per day in February. Another tracking firm, Vortexa, reported an even sharper decline, with exports dropping to 7.5 million barrels per day last week, a 71% decrease from the 26.10 million barrels per day in February.

This marks the largest oil supply disruption in history. Under normal conditions, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation. Its substantial closure has forced exporters to cancel shipments and shut down oil fields, causing crude prices to surge to their highest levels in four years, with some fuel prices reaching record highs.

Before the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. conflict, these eight countries accounted for 36% of global seaborne oil exports, with an average daily export volume of 70.43 million barrels. As storage facilities in oil-producing countries become saturated and shipping flow through Hormuz remains at a minimal level of normalcy, the overall production reduction in the Middle East continues to expand.

Both major agencies’ data point to a steep decline

Data from both Kpler and Vortexa indicate the same trend: Middle Eastern oil exports are experiencing a historic plunge. Kpler reports that last week, the average export volume from these eight countries was 9.71 million barrels per day, down 61% from February. Vortexa’s data shows a mere 7.5 million barrels per day, a 71% drop.

The significance of this impact lies in its scale: these eight countries contributed 36% of global seaborne oil exports before the conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly cuts off this critical supply chain, becoming the core reason for the current pressure on the global energy markets.

The reduction in production among major oil-producing countries varies significantly due to differences in storage and transportation conditions. Reuters reported on Monday that the UAE, which was producing about 3.4 million barrels per day before the conflict, has now cut more than half. Iraq’s output has decreased by 70% from pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has also reduced production by about 20%.

Analysts estimate that the overall reduction in Middle Eastern crude oil production has reached between 7 and 10 million barrels per day. As storage capacities approach their limits and export channels remain blocked, the pressure to further cut production persists.

Tank saturation and blocked channels continue to compound supply disruption pressures

The substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dealt a double blow to Middle Eastern oil exports, affecting both logistics and production. Exporters are forced to cancel shipments due to inability to send out cargo, and as onshore storage facilities become saturated, oil-producing countries have no choice but to further cut upstream output. Currently, vessel flow through Hormuz remains only a tiny fraction of normal levels.

With multiple supply-side constraints, crude prices have risen to their highest in four years, and some fuel prices have hit record highs, exerting ongoing pressure on global energy security and inflation expectations.

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