26.3.16. High-level Emotional Flow Review and Expectation Discrepancy

1. [Taogu Ba]
   Before reading, please click the like button in the lower right corner. Once it reaches 1,000 likes, I will post the next article.
   Still the same, I won’t say too much about the internal modes in the main post.
   But just to share my market expectations and trend judgments. It’s one of a kind in the market; even with ultra-short fundamentals, I can barely understand it.
   Of course, I don’t expect everyone to understand. The top-tier logic always serves only the 5% of market participants.
   Here I share a few insights to spark ideas; if 5% can see it, that’s enough. Other flashy strategies and patterns are not related to me.
   -----
   The main post will resume updates starting this week.
   Putting logic and predictions in the comments is too scattered and inconvenient for reviewing the entire market cycle.
   Daily comments and programs will still be in the evening video segment. The main post will be for periodic reviews and future expectations.
   Today’s article is roughly divided into two parts: 1. Review, 2. Some miscellaneous ideas.

2. Logic

First, extend the timeline and then summarize recent days.
Before the market peak, after the main post, the overall market had little fluctuation.
After participating in Zhejiang Wenlian from 1.21 to 2.5, there were no other standout directions afterward.
On 2.27, I mentioned the clear signals from Huasheng and Yunei in the comments. Huasheng’s signal was about hardware recognition of mining rigs, and Yunei was a clear signal to mimic the role of Keli Automation.
But because quantitative measures kept trying to identify these signals, and the overall guidance was slightly lacking, the results were quite turbulent.
Without consensus, there’s no new liquidity, so the core trend of recognition during this phase was oscillation.
This prevents reaching higher levels.

Looking at recent days, there are a few major events.
Since Huasheng broke down on 3.12 last week, early signs appeared.
By 3.13, the comprehensive collapse of computing power was evident.

Think about it: on 3.3, Huasheng’s bottom was mentioned as a point of interest.
That day’s bottoming out was a positive feedback, even if there was no movement on 3.12 or 3.13.
If the outcome isn’t right, it indicates issues in the process.
Why do some people incur negative costs while others suffer negative returns?

If wrong, it boils down to two points:
One, the rhythm; Two, the level of effort.
Some didn’t dare to act when they should have, then went all-in later.
Isn’t this contradicting the signals?
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Let’s talk about electricity.
Several key stocks worth mentioning in the main post are GCL-Poly, Green Power, China Power, and China Electric Power Construction.
GCL-Poly was mentioned as an electricity anchor point on the evening of 3.10. What was said that day? That electricity can’t be viewed solely through sodium-based indicators; sodium-based indicators track independent electricity calculations, meaning there are some funds operating independently within.
They drew their own charts.
Can market manipulation represent public sentiment? Market mood?
No.
It can only guide sentiment at a certain moment, but it’s not the result of market sentiment.
GCL-Poly was on 3.11.
So, the best approach on 3.11 was to mimic quantification, covering all electricity anchor points.
The result was left to the market; if it failed, so be it. At that time, besides Huasheng, Yunei, and electricity stocks, there were no other directions.
The anchor point on 3.11 was GCL-Poly, and on 3.12, the electricity anchor shifted to Green Power.
Why?
Because at that time, Green Power and China Power were positioning themselves, and as long as not all of them failed, the electricity sector still had expectations to continue.
Both advanced on that day, enabling a broad rally on Friday.
The expectation progressed step by step, understand?
The anchor point on Friday moved to China Electric Power Construction, whose performance continued to raise expectations for the entire sector, leading to the current trend.
Logic and expectations are interconnected.

3. Market + Anchor Points

Let’s see what happened today.
After the bidding closed, China Electric Power Construction, as an electricity anchor, bid early and opened below the market.
Meanwhile, Green Power and China Power were still positioning (not to say the positioning disappeared just because the trend paused), but the opening and subsequent handling of China Electric Power Construction directly caused a collapse in the entire electricity sector’s strength.
From GCL-Poly to Green Power and China Power, all were doing well, but when it came to China Electric Power Construction, the expected performance wasn’t met, and market sentiment turned sharply negative.
Super-short funds react extremely quickly.
So today, the only word to describe the electricity sector’s opening was “core.”

And what about computing power?
Last Friday, the entire sector broke down collectively.
If the market wanted to rescue computing power directly today, would it be too obvious to just lift Ningbo and Meiliyun? There’s also heavy selling pressure.
So, they might use expectation differences instead.
That’s why an additional anchor point, Yan Shan, was added—because combining brain-machine tech with computing power gives a decent recognition level.
Of course, it’s likely not to work, so today was just a quick scan.
It didn’t succeed today, but those “expected” anchor points, Ningbo and Meiliyun, also performed weakly—actually weaker.

So, if you want to understand the market the next day, you need to think ahead about many unexpected expectation differences.
These differences can exist anywhere.
But the problem is, you might think of ten directions, and only two or three will actually play out the next day.
If the market is off, none will.
So, you need to overlay some dynamic decision-making skills in your market analysis—that’s why I always emphasize dynamic market observation.
When the market is good, you don’t need to think about expectation differences.
When the market is bad, that’s when you need to think more.

5. Expectations

What should you think about tomorrow?

1. Today’s electricity is like last Friday’s computing power. Following the expectation difference logic from last week, what is the expected direction for electricity tomorrow? What about sodium-based indicators?
2. Are there subtle changes in the relationship between micro-cap stocks and capacity stocks? Where are these reflected on the chart?
3. Try to construct your own expectations for tomorrow’s sentiment and sector anchors, and I’ll reveal the answers tonight.

Some of these questions have answers; others are open-ended. But they are the most critical points on the chart.
So, whether you have answers or not, start thinking about these questions.

6. Bonus

Actually, losses come in two types.
One is losing without knowing how, which still requires patience and reflection.
The other is understanding the market but being unable to change it—an unavoidable frustration.
For this, you can check out @Taogu Activities’ Women’s Day comments to improve your mood.
The market won’t disappear, but good times don’t last forever.

7. If you read the main post and don’t like it, it’s probably you.