The rebound has lasted 39 days. If this rebound is in response to the decline from 97,900 to 60,000 (blue route), then we must find the rebound endpoint this week and turn downward. Otherwise, the rebound starting from 60,000 may be in response to the entire decline from 126,000 to 60,000 (red route).



Based on our structural division of BTC, here are the two possible routes shown in the chart:

Red route: The rebound starting from 60,000 is overall a three-wave structure, with this week's weekly K highest point being the endpoint of the first rebound. After the first rebound ends, it retraces to late March/early April, followed by an adjustment endpoint that doesn't break 60,000, then initiates the next rebound wave extending to mid-to-late April. After completing the entire rebound from 60,000, it will trigger a decline at the same level as the 126,000-60,000 drop.

Blue route: The rebound starting from 60,000 is in response to the 97,900-60,000 decline. After finding the rebound endpoint this week, it will continue declining. After completing the entire decline from 126,000, it will execute a rebound at the same level. Under this route, the low point must break below 60,000. Currently, there is very limited time left for the decline to develop—the longer we wait, the lower the probability of this scenario becomes.

I have prepared trading strategies for both scenarios and am ready to make decisive moves once the market provides the answer.
BTC0.48%
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