Zhang Yao Xi: Powell Arrives with Decision, Gold Price Expected to Maintain Range-Bound Adjustment Awaiting Rebound

Zhang Yaoxi: Powell’s Decision and Resolution Approaching, Gold Prices Expected to Remain Volatile with Adjustments Before Rebound
On the previous trading day, Tuesday (March 17): International gold continued to fluctuate and close, although geopolitical tensions remained unresolved. Iran’s first attack on upstream oil and gas facilities in the UAE and other major oil prices strengthened, limiting gold’s rebound. However, markets are still oscillating around the $5,000 mark as they await this week’s Federal Reserve decision and future policy outlook. Given the current lack of sustained bearish pressure, technical patterns suggest a bottoming and bullish outlook. If prices fall further, support levels at the 60-day moving average should be watched, and long entries for potential rebounds remain viable.
In terms of specific movement, gold opened at $5,006.99 per ounce in Asian trading, rebounded initially, reaching an intraday high of $5,044.02 at midday, then faced resistance and declined, continuing to fluctuate lower. After hitting an intraday low of $4,973.89 at 11:30 p.m. U.S. time, it bottomed out and rebounded, consolidating above $4,997 in a narrow range, finally closing at $5,005.48. The daily range was $70.13, down $1.51, a 0.03% decline.

Outlook for Wednesday (March 18): International gold will open with narrow fluctuations as markets continue to wait for the Fed’s rate decision and economic outlook summary at 2 a.m. during the second half of the U.S. trading session, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for further guidance.
Market expectations currently hold rates steady. “Fed’s Voice”: The Fed is inclined to remain silent this week, so the trend is expected to continue oscillating.
However, after a period of adjustment, gold prices are still likely to rise because, historically, gold tends to increase after oil prices surge, and current analysis suggests gold will ultimately turn upward.
Historical comparisons are well known, and despite Iran’s firm stance and the U.S. not backing down, risks will persist. The core issue remains the Strait of Hormuz; once oil issues are resolved, pressure on gold will ease.
According to White House economic advisor Hasket: Oil tankers are passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran’s conflict is expected to last weeks rather than months. The U.S. plans to relax sanctions on Venezuela to address rising oil prices. Iraq resumed oil exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan port from Wednesday, and negotiations between Iraq and Iran aim to allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, among other measures, which have already limited oil price rebounds.

Therefore, looking ahead, conflicts and inflation driven by oil prices are likely to remain deadlocked but unlikely to intensify further. Gold prices will gradually adjust, waiting for the return of rate cut expectations, central bank buying, de-dollarization, and economic concerns to trigger another rally.
On the technical side, the monthly chart shows gold weakening this month but still trading above the 5-month moving average and above the upward trendline broken in January, indicating a still favorable bullish outlook. If prices continue to fall this month, support levels at the 5-month (around 4,800) or 10-month (around 4,400) moving averages can be seen as potential bullish reversal points.
Conversely, if prices break below the trendline support and close below the $4,300 level, it would signal the end of the bull market, with further declines toward $3,500 or even lower, possibly around $3,000.
On the daily chart, gold has formed two consecutive days of oscillating doji reversal patterns, with the ZZ indicator also showing a bottoming signal, suggesting a potential rebound back to $5,200 or $5,400. Currently, prices remain below the midline and other moving averages, with the accompanying indicators still signaling a bearish trend, and short-term risks of decline exist. Medium-term traders may consider buying on dips with support at the 60-day moving average. Short-term traders should focus on intraday signals for bullish or bearish cues.

Gold: Watch support around $4,970 or $4,955; resistance near $5,020/$5,050 and $5,080.
Silver: Support at $78.40 or $77.20; resistance at $82.00 or $83.20.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold prices roughly causes a $0.25 change in Gold TD (theoretically).
U.S. futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × days to expiry / 365)
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The above opinions and analysis represent only the author’s personal views, for reference only, not trading advice. Operate at your own risk.
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