"Revenge Declaration" Detonates Markets: Oil Soars 10%, US Stocks Plunge, Gold Dives

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Overnight market sentiment remains dominated by geopolitical risks, with crude oil prices rising over 10%, U.S. stocks plunging across the board, and precious metals generally declining amid sharp volatility. The market’s trading focus has shifted from “AI boom” and “soft landing” to “geopolitical risks” and “stagflation threats.”

On the evening of March 12, Beijing time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued his first statement, saying he will not abandon revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should be immediately shut down.

The Strait of Hormuz is the “throat” of global energy supply, handling about 20 million barrels of crude oil daily, accounting for one-fifth of global maritime oil transportation. Concerns over supply disruptions continued to push oil prices higher. On March 12, at the close, London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose 10.6% to $101.75 per barrel, and New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) light crude futures for April delivery also increased over 10%, at $96.39 per barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all tumbled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.6%, the Nasdaq down 1.8%, and the S&P 500 down 1.5%. Aside from the energy sector and some defensive stocks, all other sectors experienced sell-offs, with large tech stocks declining across the board. Tesla fell over 3%, Meta dropped more than 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Google each declined over 1%.

Amid soaring oil prices, concerns about a resurgence of inflation have resurfaced, weakening investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term. This shift in expectations pushed the dollar index higher, putting pressure on non-yielding precious metals, leading to declines in gold and silver prices. By Thursday’s close, gold futures for April delivery on NYMEX fell 1.8% to $5,084.10, and silver futures for May delivery dropped 1.9% to $83.96. The dollar index rose 0.5% to 99.74.

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