Brent crude oil surges above $100, Dow Jones drops over 700 points, tech giants collapse across the board, Fed rate cut expectations rapidly fade

U.S. stock markets plunged sharply on Thursday, with oil prices soaring to around $100 per barrel, intensifying inflation concerns as investors pulled out of equities.

Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, all but the energy sector and some defensive stocks declined. The energy sector rose 1.0%, performing the best; the industrial sector fell 2.5%, the largest decline. Agricultural fertilizer companies reliant on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz surged due to price spikes, with the S&P Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Index up 4.9%.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 739.42 points, or 1.56%, to 46,677.85; the S&P 500 fell 103.18 points, or 1.52%, to 6,672.62; the Nasdaq Composite declined 404.15 points, or 1.78%, to 22,311.98.

【Popular Stocks Performance】

Major tech stocks generally declined. Enphase Energy fell 3.46%, Tesla dropped 3.14%, Meta declined 2.55%, Oracle down 2.43%, Apple fell 1.94%, Alphabet-A down 1.67%, Broadcom declined 1.64%, Nvidia fell 1.54%, Amazon dropped 1.47%, Microsoft declined 0.73%.

The financial sector came under pressure. JPMorgan Chase on Thursday lowered valuations for some private credit funds, with its stock down 1.6%; Morgan Stanley restricted redemptions from a private credit fund, down 4.1%. Swiss private equity firm Partners Group warned that as credit quality deteriorates, private credit default rates could double in the coming years.

The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.02%. NetEase rose 0.88%, Tencent Music gained 2.47%, Xpeng Motors up 3.55%, NIO increased 1.19%. Futu Holdings fell 6.31%, KE Holdings dropped 3.49%, Li Auto declined 2.52%, Baidu down 1.59%, Alibaba down 1.52%, Pinduoduo fell 1.28%, JD.com declined 0.60%, Ctrip dropped 0.33%.

Japanese payment app PayPay listed on Nasdaq Thursday, closing at $18.16, up about 13.5% from the IPO price. Backed by SoftBank, its American Depositary Shares (ADS) were priced at $16, opening at $19. The IPO sold approximately 55 million ADS, raising about $880 million.

【Market Overview】

According to CCTV, on the 12th local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued his first statement since taking office, systematically addressing the country’s development direction, regional situation, and external challenges. Khamenei stated that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.

Khamenei said all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should be immediately shut down; otherwise, they will be attacked.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday said the war is causing the most severe oil supply disruptions in history. The day before, member countries agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Energy Aspects analyst noted that specific allocation details have not yet been announced, and markets remain skeptical about whether the reserves can be fully released. The agency added that this stock mainly consists of crude oil, enough to cover about 25 days of current transportation disruptions.

In its latest monthly report, IEA stated that Gulf countries have cut at least 10 million barrels per day of oil production, nearly 10% of global demand.

International oil prices surged sharply on Thursday. U.S. crude oil futures for April delivery rose $8.48 to close at $95.73 per barrel, up 9.72%; London Brent crude futures increased $8.48 to $100.46 per barrel, up 9.22%, crossing the $100 mark for the first time since August 2022.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Thursday that the U.S. Navy currently cannot escort ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz, “but this will happen soon, just not now.”

White House spokesperson Karine Leavitt said that to address the surge in oil prices, the Trump administration is considering a temporary exemption from the century-old Jones Act, which regulates domestic shipping in the U.S. Exempting it would help ease nationwide fuel transportation pressures.

“Markets are increasingly realizing that the prospects for resolving Middle East conflicts are bleak,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “The current mindset is to sell first and ask questions later. Aside from the energy sector, there are hardly any safe havens.”

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on March 17. Markets widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but investors will closely watch the latest economic projections for inflation estimates. Despite recent data showing controlled price increases, the surge in oil prices since the Iran conflict began has not yet been reflected in the data.

Detrick said that rising oil prices mean markets are reassessing the monetary policy path. “Behind the oil price increase is the market realizing that the Fed’s chances of cutting rates later this year are rapidly diminishing.”

Federal Funds Rate futures show that markets expect only a 19 basis point cut by year-end, indicating investors are no longer fully betting on a 25 basis point cut this year.

On the economic data front, last week’s initial jobless claims were roughly flat, and January’s trade deficit narrowed more than expected.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that for the week ending March 7, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims totaled 213,000, down 1,000 from the previous week, below the consensus estimate of 215,000.

The U.S. Commerce Department showed that January’s trade deficit shrank to $54.5 billion, a $18.4 billion decrease from the previous month, well below the expected $67 billion.

U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Thursday. The two-year yield increased 11.3 basis points to 3.749%, the highest since August 2025, and the largest daily gain since June. The 10-year yield rose 4.9 basis points to 4.255%, the highest since February 5.

Montreal Bank’s rate strategist noted that ongoing Middle East conflict will bring inflation and fiscal pressures. “With no clear path to de-escalation, we remain cautious about further weakness in U.S. Treasuries.”

【Commodities Performance】

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and diminished rate cut expectations. Spot gold declined 1.1% to $1,518.16 per ounce; April gold futures closed at $1,525.80, down 1%.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said, “A stronger dollar, rising bond yields, and weaker rate cut expectations are weighing on gold, but the Middle East conflict still attracts some safe-haven flows.”

Meanwhile, Chile’s central bank announced its first large-scale gold purchases since 2000. In February, its gold reserves increased to $1.108 billion, up from $42 million in January, accounting for 2.2% of its foreign exchange reserves.

Spot silver declined 1% to $84.90 per ounce.

Duty Editor: Grace