# March 13 Overnight News: US Estimates Iran War First Week Cost Over $11.3 Billion; US Building Tariff Refund System; Goldman Sachs Delays Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

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Markets

Closing on March 13: Dow Jones drops below 47,000 points to hit a new low for the year, oil prices continue to rise, putting pressure on stock indices.

On March 13, top 20 U.S. stock trading volumes: Tesla approved to supply power across the UK.

On March 13, most popular Chinese concept stocks declined; Xpeng Motors up 3.55%, TSMC down 5%.

Brent crude oil breaks $100 per barrel after Gulf shipping attacks and Iran warnings, markets decline.

NY gold futures drop over 2%, US stocks close below $5,060 after hours.

European stocks continue to fall; Iran’s top leader’s remarks intensify energy supply concerns.

Macro

Trump says the Iran conflict is rapidly progressing.

Trump urges Powell to cut interest rates immediately: don’t wait for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting.

The Trump administration plans to suspend the enforcement of the century-old Jones Act to allow foreign ships to transport goods between U.S. ports.

To curb soaring oil prices, the Trump administration plans to suspend the century-old Jones Act.

Pentagon: U.S. spent about $11 billion last week fighting Iran.

Pentagon estimates the Iran war cost over $11.3 billion in the first week.

U.S. Treasury Secretary: U.S. Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; war costs remain manageable.

Treasury Secretary Yellen says she’s not worried about the fiscal costs of the Iran conflict.

Yellen: U.S. Navy will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz when conditions permit.

Iran’s top security official: We will never back down; the U.S. will regret their misjudgment.

Iran military: If energy infrastructure is attacked, we will retaliate.

U.S. “Ford” aircraft carrier experiences non-combat fire incident.

U.S. considers initiating escort of ships through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the month; Trump downplays oil price surge.

U.S. gasoline prices hit a 21-month high, gig workers feel the pinch at the pump.

U.S. military claims to have damaged or destroyed over 60 Iranian ships and more than 30 mine-laying boats.

EU refutes U.S. overcapacity accusations, warns of resolute retaliation against tariffs.

The U.S. is establishing a tariff refund system, progress at 40%-80%.

International Maritime Organization plans to hold a special meeting to discuss Middle East tensions.

The Federal Reserve will announce next week a proposal to relax bank capital requirements.

U.S. Senate Democrats block the reauthorization of Homeland Security funding bill.

Canada and Mexico reaffirm the importance of the USMCA trade agreement.

Brazil cancels diesel tax after oil prices surge but taxes oil exports.

Chile and the U.S. will start negotiations on critical minerals and rare earths.

A shooting occurred at a Jewish synagogue in Detroit; no other victims reported.

Companies

Tesla approved to convert its investment in xAI into equity in SpaceX.

Tesla obtains UK power supply license.

Elon Musk’s xAI faces a wave of co-founder departures; only 2 of 11 founders remain.

Saudi Arabia rents idle oil tankers to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Stellantis considers deals with Xiaomi Group and Xpeng Motors to revive European operations.

Microsoft’s Devices and Experiences head Rajesh Jha announces retirement.

Netflix reportedly undergoes internal restructuring, laying off dozens of global product team employees.

Despite the Pentagon blacklisting Anthropic, Palantir continues to use its Claude model.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reportedly informs joint venture partners they no longer need to load from Persian Gulf ports.

Amazon Prime Air is exiting the commercial drone alliance due to safety concerns.

Rivian’s key model, the R2 electric SUV, launches this spring at $58,000.

Deutsche Bank discloses a $30 billion exposure in private credit, among the largest on Wall Street.

RWE plans to invest $19 billion in the U.S. for gas-fired power plants to meet rising demand.

Sam Altman meets with lawmakers, receiving “serious questioning” on OpenAI’s defense work.

Brazil’s Vale plans to double ore production from waste materials by 2025.

UK, after rejecting a comprehensive ban on teenagers, urges social media giants to enhance child safety protections.

U.S. crude oil fund’s holdings have increased over 40% this month.

Commentary

Contrary to Trump’s views, the UK suggests Iran may have already begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bond traders no longer bet on a 100% chance of the Fed cutting rates once in 2026.

Goldman Sachs delays its forecast for the Fed’s first rate cut this year to September.

Poll: About half of Americans blame Trump for rising oil prices.

Analysis: U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve may not reach Asia’s tight markets until mid-May at the earliest.

Under pressure from fund withdrawals and rising defaults, “leverage at the fund level” becomes a new pain point for private credit.

Trump and Iran’s new leader are both determined; energy market supply pressures remain.

Brent crude oil settles above $100 for the first time since August 2022.

U.S. mortgage rates see the largest increase in 11 months amid inflation fears triggered by Iran tensions.

U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise; the 2-year yield up 10 basis points today.

Housing affordability bill passes the Senate; investor home-buying bans spark controversy.

Crude oil: Brent crude settles above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.

Bloomberg dollar index hits a nearly two-month closing high; oil prices surge again.

S&P 500 declines for the third consecutive day; rising oil prices intensify inflation worries.

U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yields fall below pre-auction levels.

European bond markets: yields continue to climb amid inflation concerns.