Hexun Investment Advisor Huang Ruzhen: The tech sector's low-level recovery has begun; be cautious when chasing gains today

Today is Friday. From a trading rhythm perspective, the performance in the first half is not as important as in the second half because Friday’s key focus is on observing capital movements, especially the direction of late-day buying, which often involves betting on news that may ferment over the weekend, thus pre-empting next week’s market trend. Based on this logic, today leans toward expecting a recovery in the overall index environment. Recently, the market has indeed shown a pattern of movement on Fridays, rumors over the weekend, a rally on Monday, and a pullback on Tuesday. But from a short-term perspective, for funds that cannot control their impulses, they will still follow quantitative funds to arbitrage. If intra-day sentiment hits a low, look for defensive stocks.

Today is the first day after the Two Sessions conclude. The emergence of new directions is worth paying attention to. Stable sectors like power and chemicals are key areas to watch, as the market is about to enter a phase of earnings pre-increase speculation. The core stocks related to electricity cooperation are under regulatory scrutiny today, and their feedback will directly impact this sector’s performance. If they continue to strengthen after regulation, it will boost thematic performance; otherwise, it may suppress the sector.

Yesterday, three new trending sectors emerged: thermal power, wind power, and nuclear power under the power sector. The strength of thermal power is partly due to coal prices, partly driven by expectations of hotter weather this summer compared to last year, and also influenced by a small number of coal chemical companies, which are a subfield of crude oil. Additionally, disruptions in shipping may affect fertilizer export premiums, which also boosted related stocks. Although crude oil retreated after an initial surge yesterday, it did spike during the session, siphoning off a lot of funds. The rise in wind and nuclear power is also related to the spread of crude oil sentiment, but the underlying logic differs—global capital is re-evaluating energy security, with the impact of Middle East geopolitical conflicts being very prominent. As a result, countries are strengthening expectations of internal energy development, which naturally benefits the long-term development of various clean energy sources.

For investors who did not take action to test these sectors yesterday, there’s no need to rush. They can wait until a clear trend emerges before participating in core stocks that can withstand divergence. For example, even if you didn’t participate in the energy cooperation sector on Wednesday (March 4), there was still an opportunity to join related core stocks and profit later. But if you chase high the next day, will your outcome be the same as those who chased smart economy on March 4 or optoelectronics on March 5? This lesson is worth learning.

Let’s also talk about the most eye-catching crude oil sector recently. Skilled traders should focus on stocks that hit their daily high prices on the trading day when crude oil reached $119, as these can be used for strategic betting. Although Persia has issued strong words about pushing crude oil to $200, even if that happens, it’s unlikely to be a short-term spike; this is a medium- to long-term game, not suitable for short-term thinking.

In the tech sector, the main focus on hardware is on external events—NVIDIA’s GTC conference scheduled for March 16 Eastern Time. For related A-share stocks, it’s advisable to hold put options a day in advance and avoid chasing highs. Internally, the focus remains on sectors influenced by the Lobster AI, including fiber optics and optical communications. It’s important to note that the major tech stocks already recovered from lows yesterday, so there may not be a good entry point today.

(Edited by: Zhang Yan)

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