Iran says it allows some countries' ships to pass through Strait of Hormuz, U.S. military tanker crashes in Iraq | Global Markets

Overnight Stock Market

On Thursday Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow down 1.56%, the Nasdaq down 1.78%, and the S&P 500 down 1.52%.

As signs of a clear end to the war with Iran remain elusive, risk aversion has increased again, causing oil prices to surge sharply and global stock markets to decline.

Market concerns center on the possibility that the war could hinder oil production in the Persian Gulf region for an extended period, leading to a significant rise in global inflation and serious impacts on the world economy.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that historically, stock market volatility driven by geopolitical factors tends to be short-lived, but if oil prices stay high, the Federal Reserve’s policy response could become more complex, supporting the Federal Funds Rate at elevated levels for longer.

Commodities Market

Light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $8.48 to close at $95.73 per barrel, a 9.72% increase; May delivery Brent crude futures on the London ICE also rose $8.48 to $100.46 per barrel, up 9.22%.

Earlier, Iraqi security officials reported that two fuel oil tankers in Iraqi waters were attacked by Iranian ships loaded with explosives. Another Iraqi official stated that the country’s oil ports have “completely ceased operations.”

Iran also warned global markets to prepare for oil prices to reach $200 per barrel. However, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray said that it’s unlikely global oil prices will hit that level.

COMEX gold futures fell 1.8%, closing at $5,084 per ounce; COMEX silver futures declined 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce.

Market News

【Iran Deputy Foreign Minister: Allow Some Countries’ Ships to Pass through the Strait of Hormuz】

According to the Islamic Republic News Agency on December 12, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanji said in an interview that Iran allows some countries’ ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Ravanji stated that some countries have discussed the issue of navigation through the Strait with Iran and that Iran has cooperated with them, but countries involved in aggression against Iran do not have “safe passage rights” through the Strait. He also mentioned that Iran has not mined the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

【Iran Says Trump’s Tweets Cannot End the War】

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said on March 12 that launching a war is easy, but ending it is not something that can be achieved through a few tweets. Larijani emphasized that once a war begins, its end is not simple. He also stated that Iran will not easily let go of its adversaries.

【Iran Armed Forces: Any Attack on Iran’s Energy Facilities and Ports Will Be Met with Devastating Retaliation】

Iran’s Central Headquarters of the Hatham Al-Anbia Army said on March 12 that any attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure and ports will be met with “destructive” retaliation. The spokesperson warned the U.S., Israel, and all their allies that any actions targeting Iran’s energy facilities and ports will trigger a strong Iranian response. If such incidents occur, all U.S. and allied oil and gas facilities in the region could be set ablaze and destroyed.

【U.S. Military Refueling Plane Crashes in Iraq】

Today (March 13) early morning Beijing time, the U.S. Central Command confirmed that a U.S. KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq, while another U.S. aircraft safely landed. CENTCOM stated that the incident occurred during military operations against Iran, and the crash site was “within friendly-controlled airspace,” with the cause not due to enemy fire or friendly fire. Search and rescue efforts are ongoing. More information will be released as the situation develops.

【Iranian Revolutionary Guard Official: Destroyed 70% of U.S. Bases and Command Posts in the Middle East】

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisor Jafari said on March 12 that Iran has the capability and endurance for a prolonged war, and that in recent days, “70% of U.S. military bases and command posts in the region have been destroyed.” Jafari also mentioned that Iran possesses a new generation of advanced missile systems that have not yet been used.

【Israeli Prime Minister Threatens Assassination of Iran’s New Supreme Leader】

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held his first press conference after the large-scale airstrikes on Iran on the evening of March 12, defending the joint U.S.-Israel military actions and subtly threatening to assassinate Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Muqtada Khamenei. Netanyahu claimed that after nearly two weeks of Israeli and U.S. airstrikes, Iran “is no longer the same,” and that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij militia have “suffered heavy losses.” When asked about possible actions against Muqtada Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, Netanyahu said he would not “issue a life insurance policy” for them and that he “does not plan to detail plans or actions here.” He also claimed that Iran and Hezbollah are no longer as threatening as before. Additionally, Netanyahu revealed that he “speaks with U.S. President Trump every day,” and their communication is “frank and open.”

【U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Fertilizer Supply Chain】

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global shipping route. After the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, not only have international oil and natural gas prices soared, but the global fertilizer supply chain has also been significantly impacted. The UN Conference on Trade and Development reported that shipping costs—including freight, fuel, and insurance—are rising, increasing transportation costs across the entire fertilizer supply chain. U.S. agricultural experts warn that American farmers will also be severely affected and may need to adjust their planting strategies.

【Trump Administration Considers Waiving the Jones Act to Address Fuel Price Surge】

The Trump administration is considering a temporary waiver of the century-old Jones Act to ensure the free movement of energy and agricultural products between U.S. ports. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Thursday that this move aims to address supply disruptions caused by the Iran situation. “For national defense reasons, the White House is considering a temporary waiver of the Jones Act to ensure that critical energy products and agricultural necessities can flow freely to U.S. ports,” she stated. She added, “This action is not final.” According to two sources, an announcement regarding a 30-day waiver could be made as early as Thursday to respond to rising fuel prices and other supply disruptions since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began.

【U.S. Mortgage Rates Hit 11-Month High Amid Iran War Inflation Fears】

U.S. mortgage rates have risen to their highest in nearly a year, with inflation fears triggered by the Iran conflict adding uncertainty to the upcoming spring sales season. Data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday showed that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased from 6% last week to 6.11%, the largest weekly increase since April 2025. Rates briefly dipped below 6% in late February, and with home prices stabilizing, the market had some optimism for the spring sales season. However, if the war continues and oil prices rise further, inflation could accelerate, pushing up Treasury yields that influence mortgage rates.

【Amazon Launches $54 Billion Bond Offering Amid Market Frenzy】

This week, the banks selling Amazon’s bonds sent a clear message to investors: in an increasingly unpredictable world, this company remains a relatively safe investment. On Tuesday, Amazon issued $37 billion in bonds across 11 maturities in the U.S., with subscription orders reaching up to $1.26 trillion—close to a record. On Wednesday, the company also issued bonds in the euro market for the first time, totaling €14.5 billion (about $16.8 billion), setting a record for the largest corporate bond issuance in the euro market. Morgan Stanley’s head of investment-grade debt capital markets, John Servidea, said Wall Street banks have been advising companies that this is a “market environment where a window can open and close very quickly.”

【Google Introduces AI Q&A Feature for Its Software】

Alphabet is rolling out its biggest upgrade to its mapping product in over a decade. Google Maps now features a new “Ask Maps” function, allowing users to interact with the app as if chatting with a chatbot. Google Maps Vice President and General Manager Miriam Daniel wrote in an official blog, “We’ve combined the latest global maps with our most powerful Gemini model to make exploring maps easier and more intuitive, with the most significant navigation upgrade in over ten years.”