Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Supply, Fertilizer Stocks Surge

As the Middle East conflict escalates, threatening key spring planting supplies, fertilizer stocks surged in early trading. CF Industries Holdings Inc (NYSE: CF) soared 6.86%, Nutrien Ltd (NYSE: NTR) increased 5.81%, and Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) rose 4.77%. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, shipments arriving in North America during the April spring planting season are expected to face delays.

Industry analysts describe this timing as catastrophic, emphasizing the urgency. About one-third of global fertilizer supplies are transported through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to close amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military tensions. According to Farm Progress, products shipped through the Middle East in mid-March were scheduled to arrive in North America by the spring planting in April, but now face delays.

StoneX analyst Josh Linville told Successful Farming, “Literally, this couldn’t be happening at a worse time of year.”

Supply disruptions have driven prices to multi-year highs. As of March 9, North American fertilizer price index reached $810 per short ton, surpassing the August 2025 peak of $776.85 per short ton. At the New Orleans import hub, fertilizer prices jumped from $516 per metric ton on Friday to $683 on Thursday.

Supply Chain Impact

The International Energy Agency reported Thursday that, due to the conflict, Gulf Cooperation Council countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, nearly 10% of global demand. Qatar has also halted operations at its liquefied natural gas facilities, affecting about 20% of the world’s LNG supply, pushing up natural gas prices critical for nitrogen fertilizer production.

According to CoBank analysis, three of the top ten global urea exporters and three of the top ten ammonia exporters rely on the Strait of Hormuz. Poland’s state-owned Grupa Azoty, one of the EU’s largest fertilizer producers, has temporarily stopped accepting orders due to rising natural gas prices increasing production costs.

CoBank Chief Economist Jacqui Fatka stated in a March 9 report, “Many farmers are hesitant about fertilizer decisions this spring amid poor economic conditions and high input costs overall. Waiting for fertilizer prices to fall has proven to be a risky gamble.”

Market Reaction

In addition to major producers, smaller fertilizer companies also saw significant gains Thursday. CVR Partners LP (NYSE: UAN) jumped 6.63% to $137.26, and Intrepid Potash Inc (NYSE: IPI) increased 6.39% to $46.97.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has warned against price gouging. Deputy Secretary Luke Lindberg, responsible for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, said on March 9, “The President will be very clear, and Secretary Brooke Rollins will also make it clear, that any company or link in the fertilizer supply chain attempting to exploit this situation to gouge American farmers and ranchers will not be tolerated.”

Key Points to Watch

Investors should monitor:

• Alternative shipping routes: Can fertilizer shipments bypass the Strait of Hormuz?

• Strategic reserve releases: The International Energy Agency coordinating releases to ease supply constraints

• Spring planting schedule: Any delays in the April planting season could further tighten supply and demand dynamics

• Q1 earnings guidance: Expected to be released in late April/early May, when companies will quantify supply chain impacts

• Natural gas prices: Fertilizer production costs continue to face upward pressure

The International Energy Agency states that this conflict has caused the largest oil supply disruption in global market history, triggering chain reactions across the entire agricultural commodities market, with palm oil soaring up to 10%, soybean oil rising sharply, and wheat nearing a two-year high.

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