International Oil Prices Surge, US Stock Market Plummets

On Thursday Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the stock market experiencing a broad sell-off. Crude oil prices surged, with Brent crude oil closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022. Additionally, the crisis in the US private credit market continues to intensify.

Under the energy shock, inflation concerns triggered by rising oil prices have made monetary policy outlooks increasingly uncertain. Traders have significantly reduced their bets on rate cuts this year.

According to Xinhua News Agency, citing the Islamic Republic News Agency on the 12th, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanji stated in an interview that Iran allows ships from certain countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Major U.S. Stock Indices Close Lower

On Thursday Eastern Time, all three major U.S. stock indices fell more than 1.5%. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.56% to 46,677.85 points; the Nasdaq fell 1.78% to 22,311.98; and the S&P 500 declined 1.52% to 6,672.62.

WTI crude oil closed up 9.7% for the day; Brent crude oil rose 9.2%, closing at $100.46 per barrel, marking the first time since August 2022 that it closed above $100, heightening inflation concerns. Traders are no longer fully pricing in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields soaring and the dollar reaching a nearly two-month high.

According to Xinhua, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader Mullah Khamenei issued his first statement after taking office on the 12th, saying Iran will not abandon revenge and will continue to use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a means, calling on neighboring countries in the region to close U.S. military bases as soon as possible.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that tensions in the Middle East are causing the largest-ever disruption in oil supply, intensifying concerns over rising inflation pressures.

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, said: “The market has realized that the resolution of Middle East conflicts could be further delayed. The current market sentiment is to sell first and think about fundamentals later. Apart from the energy sector, there are hardly any truly safe sectors right now.”

The surge in oil prices due to energy shocks has heightened inflation worries, making the outlook for monetary policy increasingly uncertain. Traders have sharply reduced their expectations for rate cuts this year.

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on March 17. According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is 0.9%, with a 99.1% chance of holding rates steady, and a 19.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June.

Large tech stocks mostly declined: Nvidia fell 1.55%, Amazon dropped 1.47%, Tesla declined 3.14%, Meta decreased 2.55%, Apple fell 1.94%, Microsoft declined 0.75%, and Google dropped 1.67%.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.03%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks declining. Xiaopeng Motors dropped 4.7%, Li Auto and Tencent fell over 2%, Alibaba declined 1.5%, Pinduoduo fell 1.28%, NIO rose 1.46%, Xpeng increased 3.6%, and Fangdd Network rose 16.4%.

The $1.8 trillion private credit market is showing signs of new stress, and concerns over the private credit industry continue to impact the market.

Morgan Stanley imposed redemption restrictions on one of its private credit funds on Thursday, while JPMorgan Chase downgraded the valuation of some private credit fund loans. The stock prices of the two banks fell 4.1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Adobe Surpasses Earnings Expectations

Adobe’s recent quarterly performance exceeded expectations overall, but following news that its long-serving CEO is stepping down, the stock accelerated its decline after hours.

After the market close on the 12th Eastern Time, Adobe announced that for the first quarter ending February 27, revenue increased 12% year-over-year to $6.4 billion, setting a quarterly record. Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) also grew double digits year-over-year, about 3% above analyst estimates. Adobe’s guidance for the second quarter was largely in line with market expectations.

At the same time, Adobe announced that its CEO Shantanu Narayen, who has served for 18 years, will step down once a successor is appointed. This leadership change has sparked market concerns about the company’s strategic continuity and competitiveness in the AI era.

Following the announcement, Adobe’s stock, which had fallen more than 1% on Thursday, dropped over 7% after hours. The company’s stock has declined about 23% this year, nearing a three-year low and down more than 60% from its all-time high in 2021.

Emarketer analyst Grace Harmon said the CEO change “raises questions about strategic continuity, capital allocation priorities, and innovation pace.” Investors will likely focus on whether the new leadership can balance rigorous execution with active AI investments, especially as generative AI rapidly reshapes the creative software industry.

Iran Deputy Foreign Minister: Allowing Some Countries’ Ships to Pass Through the Strait of Hormuz

According to Xinhua, citing the Islamic Republic News Agency on the 12th, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanji stated in an interview that Iran allows ships from certain countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ravanji said that some countries have discussed the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, and Iran has cooperated with them. However, countries involved in aggression against Iran do not have “safe passage rights” through the Strait.

Ravanji also stated that Iran has not laid mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security “Shutdown” Near One Month

Senate Appropriations Bill Faces Setback

According to Xinhua, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has been “shut down” for nearly a month, but bipartisan disputes over funding continue. On the 12th, a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security was again blocked in a procedural vote due to Democratic opposition, preventing it from advancing, and the department remains “shut down.”